So the McDs game was played Wednesday with the West beating the East 114-112 when O.J. Mayo bricked a wide open 3 off the back rim. Lost in all the hoopla about Mayo's selfishness is Kyle Singler's quiet play that calmly iced the game for the West. Up 112-109, Singler gets the ball in the corner and sends Mayo flying in the air with a great ball fake, followed by a reverse lay-up making it 114-109. Then, Nick Calathas (Florida recruit) got the rebound off Mayo's bricked 3, and Singler played solid defense preventing him from tying the game. The whole game Singler played defense against smaller, faster players and did so admirably.
Anyway, I wanted to comment on a few things I noticed while watching the game. First, the hoopla over Kevin Love as the anti-OJ Mayo is out of control. OJ Mayo is thought of as selfish, concerned only with style and money, while Kevin Love is portrayed as the selfless team player, a great kid all around who is a student of the game. What's lost here is that Love is as big an ego maniac as any of them.
Kevin Love: ""You know I come out here to New York and I get the McDonald's national player of the year award. I also find out that I have won the Naismith Award, the Wooden Award, and the Parade player of the year awards. Back home in Oregon, though, I only tie for state player of the year with Kyle Singler. Go figure. My team lost to his in the state playoffs, but it wasn't like he outplayed me. I just think it's ironic."
Now, are these the words of a kid who cares first for his team? This year, Singler's South Medford beat Lake Oswego twice, including in the State finals. Maybe Love's stats were better, but marginally, and what matters is the win. But Love is clearly concerned with himself first. Hey, maybe I'm wrong, but I think it's premature to anoint this guy the second coming of Bill Walton.
As for OJ, I think he's gotten premature bad press. Maybe he will be Stephon Starbury/Vince Carter type, or maybe he's gotten bad press while in high school because it suits the media to vilify him? So he shot 17 shots in a high school all-star team. I'm sorry but I'm not going to condemn him for that. It's a damn all-star game! Players barely passed in the half-court and most of the time they'd just pull up for the first shot they could get. Again, it's an all-star game. Let's not get ahead of ourselves. The word has been all week that OJ Mayo and Jerryd Bayless were scorching everyone in practice. So he had a bad game... it happens and I'm not going to jump to any conclusions.
Now, to get to the Duke players. First, Nolan Smith. He's exactly what we have lacked this year on the perimeter. He's a long, fairly athletic guard who can defend very well and has a pretty good offensive game too. I don't think he will be a star, but he will provide us with that perimeter defensive presence we have sorely missed this past year. He could become a REALLY good player, though. One interesting thing about him is his clown feet. The kid is about 6'3" and has size 18 feet. That's pretty ridiculous, and given his age, he might still grow. As it is, though, he plays bigger than he is because of his great length.
Second is Kyle Singler. He's our highest rated recruit, and for good reason. He's slighter than you'd hope for a guy who will definitely do some work on the block for Duke, but he's a more refined post player than Dunleavy was and he's a better perimeter player for his age than Dunleavy was. He's got a great mid-range game and plays intelligently. He can do everything well. He's not super athletic, but he's actually a lot quicker than I expected him to be. I anticipate that he will put on some good weight while at Duke and become a true inside/out threat. He'll definitely be a future pro, solid role player type.
Finally, there's Taylor King. He's basically what I expected, although he's bigger than I thought. He's a great outside shooter, has a pretty good mid-range shot as well. He hustles and works hard down low. But he's not quick. I think he will play sort of the role Lee Melchionni did. He'll play defense in the post, and flash out to the corner or the wing for 3s created by guys like Henderson/Nelson/Smith who can get to the basket reasonably well. A solid recruit, with a good head on his shoulders, but not a college star.
All in all, next season will be ok I think. We won't win the national championship, but we have a good shot at the ACC title (depending on early departures elsewhere) and possibly a run to the sweet 16 or elite 8 if we get a good draw. We'll be very slight up front unless Patterson signs with us... but I'm not expecting that. Anyway, I'll write up a true preview for next season once all the draft non-sense is taken care of and we have a firmer idea of who is going where and who is leaving.
Friday, March 30, 2007
Thursday, March 29, 2007
Final Four preview
This is a far, far more exciting Final Four than what we had to endure last year. I'll be honest, I don't remember any of the 3 games. I fell asleep during the Final. Everyone wanted a Duke vs. UConn final, but both teams flamed out early in the tournament. Gonzaga collapsed against UCLA, Texas choked against LSU, Villanova was outmatched by Florida, and at the end, we end up with the worst Final Four since... I don't remember. So even though Duke isn't playing this weekend, I am most excited about this year's Final Four than I have been since 2004 (oh god why does ESPN classic need to replay that terrible game. I dare anyone who thinks Duke gets all the calls to go watch that abomination of a game and get back to me).
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Georgetown, 6:07 pm
Most people are billing this up as Roy Hibbert vs. Greg Oden, but it's as likely that they will both be saddled in foul trouble for a lot of the game as them having some titanic battle of the giants. Although I do agree about one thing: the key to this game will be inside play. Georgetown relies a lot on easy shots set up by double-teams on Hibbert and back-door cuts. Oden's steady presence in the paint could present a problem for them offensively. But Georgetown is a very big team. Brandan Wright is also an excellent shot-blocker, and Georgetown pretty much scored at will on UNC. Of course, Oden is a better shot-blocker and OSU has a greater tendency to drop into a 2-3 than UNC does.
Ohio State's success will depend on two things: whether jump shots are falling, and/or whether Oden is involved in most of the minutes of the game. The odd thing is that OSU has tendencies where they just don't give Oden the ball as much as they should. This is a team with streaks of brilliance and streaks of utter mediocrity. OSU dominated Memphis after barely escaping Tennessee and Xavier. What team will we see?
So I have no god damn idea who will win this game. If Ohio State can stymie Georgetown's offense and get Hibbert in foul trouble, expect the Buckeyes to march on. If Georgetown executes offensively like they did against UNC and can control Oden and Conley's penetration, then they should win. I think UNC is a better team than Ohio State, but at this point in the season, that means nothing. So, I'll just take a shot.
Georgetown 81
Ohio State 77
#1 Florida vs. #2 UCLA, 8:47 pm
A rematch of the National Championship snoozefest of last year should be more interesting this time around. While Florida is much improved over last year, I'm not sure they are currently playing better than they were last year. At the very least, they are not playing as well vis-a-vis the other teams in the tournament as they were last year. They played a solid overall game against a much worse Oregon team and still only pulled out the win by a small margin. Their defense has not been in line with what you'd expect from a team who played so well last year in the tournament defensively. They have been winning games with offense in the tournament, but so far their tournament opposition has not exactly been the most stellar defensively. Purdue was the best (adjusted efficiency of 87.7, good for 15th in the country) statistically, but their total lack of size pretty much cut the upset bid short before it ever started. Butler had a defensive efficiency of 93 (48th in the country), and Oregon had an ADE of 93.4 (51st in the country). UCLA's ADE of 83.6 is the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the last 4 years (2nd only behind this year's Kansas team). They are lacking in size compared to Florida, but not to the extent Purdue did, and they proved against Kansas that they can defend the interior incredibly well.
The liability with UCLA is their offense. The hallmark of championship teams in recent years is balance, and UCLA's offense is rather underwhelming as compared with its defense. I have no doubt that UF will struggle against UCLA's defense, but I'm just not sure if UCLA's offense will take advantage. If Afflalo shows up like he did against Kansas, I like UCLA's chances. Plus, you have to like the intangibles of the UCLA guys wanting revenge for being embarrassed on the big stage last year. Florida has looked smug so far, and I have more faith in Ben Howland's ability to prepare a team than Billy Donovan's. Florida's offensive balance has proved too much for most teams this year, but UCLA's backcourt is better, and look for double teams on the blocks on Horford. UCLA is quick enough that they can double team down low and not suffer too much from it. Humphrey and Green are not going to get as many open looks as they did against Oregon, so I can't expect for either of them to get in much of a shooting rhythm (and Humphrey basically lives off his rhythm).
Again, this is a hard call. If Florida gets some early calls on Mata, they might be able to open up the inside for their bigs and make UCLA beat them offensively. I don't think this will happen. I think Florida will have a lot of trouble getting into an offensive rhythm. They won't get easy looks and will need to work hard for everything they get. I haven't been impressed by their defense and I think Afflalo will have a solid game to lead the revenge game.
UCLA 69
Florida 60
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Georgetown, 6:07 pm
Most people are billing this up as Roy Hibbert vs. Greg Oden, but it's as likely that they will both be saddled in foul trouble for a lot of the game as them having some titanic battle of the giants. Although I do agree about one thing: the key to this game will be inside play. Georgetown relies a lot on easy shots set up by double-teams on Hibbert and back-door cuts. Oden's steady presence in the paint could present a problem for them offensively. But Georgetown is a very big team. Brandan Wright is also an excellent shot-blocker, and Georgetown pretty much scored at will on UNC. Of course, Oden is a better shot-blocker and OSU has a greater tendency to drop into a 2-3 than UNC does.
Ohio State's success will depend on two things: whether jump shots are falling, and/or whether Oden is involved in most of the minutes of the game. The odd thing is that OSU has tendencies where they just don't give Oden the ball as much as they should. This is a team with streaks of brilliance and streaks of utter mediocrity. OSU dominated Memphis after barely escaping Tennessee and Xavier. What team will we see?
So I have no god damn idea who will win this game. If Ohio State can stymie Georgetown's offense and get Hibbert in foul trouble, expect the Buckeyes to march on. If Georgetown executes offensively like they did against UNC and can control Oden and Conley's penetration, then they should win. I think UNC is a better team than Ohio State, but at this point in the season, that means nothing. So, I'll just take a shot.
Georgetown 81
Ohio State 77
#1 Florida vs. #2 UCLA, 8:47 pm
A rematch of the National Championship snoozefest of last year should be more interesting this time around. While Florida is much improved over last year, I'm not sure they are currently playing better than they were last year. At the very least, they are not playing as well vis-a-vis the other teams in the tournament as they were last year. They played a solid overall game against a much worse Oregon team and still only pulled out the win by a small margin. Their defense has not been in line with what you'd expect from a team who played so well last year in the tournament defensively. They have been winning games with offense in the tournament, but so far their tournament opposition has not exactly been the most stellar defensively. Purdue was the best (adjusted efficiency of 87.7, good for 15th in the country) statistically, but their total lack of size pretty much cut the upset bid short before it ever started. Butler had a defensive efficiency of 93 (48th in the country), and Oregon had an ADE of 93.4 (51st in the country). UCLA's ADE of 83.6 is the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the last 4 years (2nd only behind this year's Kansas team). They are lacking in size compared to Florida, but not to the extent Purdue did, and they proved against Kansas that they can defend the interior incredibly well.
The liability with UCLA is their offense. The hallmark of championship teams in recent years is balance, and UCLA's offense is rather underwhelming as compared with its defense. I have no doubt that UF will struggle against UCLA's defense, but I'm just not sure if UCLA's offense will take advantage. If Afflalo shows up like he did against Kansas, I like UCLA's chances. Plus, you have to like the intangibles of the UCLA guys wanting revenge for being embarrassed on the big stage last year. Florida has looked smug so far, and I have more faith in Ben Howland's ability to prepare a team than Billy Donovan's. Florida's offensive balance has proved too much for most teams this year, but UCLA's backcourt is better, and look for double teams on the blocks on Horford. UCLA is quick enough that they can double team down low and not suffer too much from it. Humphrey and Green are not going to get as many open looks as they did against Oregon, so I can't expect for either of them to get in much of a shooting rhythm (and Humphrey basically lives off his rhythm).
Again, this is a hard call. If Florida gets some early calls on Mata, they might be able to open up the inside for their bigs and make UCLA beat them offensively. I don't think this will happen. I think Florida will have a lot of trouble getting into an offensive rhythm. They won't get easy looks and will need to work hard for everything they get. I haven't been impressed by their defense and I think Afflalo will have a solid game to lead the revenge game.
UCLA 69
Florida 60
Sunday, March 25, 2007
A Small Victory
Since it hasn't been a great year for Duke basketball, I feel obliged to take a little pleasure in the small victories. Let me admit something here. In 2005, after Duke bowed out, I rooted for UNC. That was a likeable UNC team. The core of that team went through a lot of adversity by going just 38-27 in their first two years before having a stellar break-out year in 2005. Maybe it was easier to like them because Duke had beaten them that year and we won the ACC title, maybe not. I felt like there was a true rivalry between our schools at that point. Redick/Williams had faced off 6 times against Felton/McCants/May and the results were close. I had respect for my enemy.
This year's Carolina team, though, is thoroughly hateable. They have no identity, no personality, and their particular style of basketball is at once fun to watch, and disgusting. There's nothing wrong with an up-tempo style with lots of run-outs and fancy displays of athleticism. However, this team has dreadful half-court execution. Watching Georgetown break down UNC's overrated defense on almost every possession proved that winning in March is about half-court execution more than it is about throwing talent at teams and hoping you wear them down. The basketball gods smiled upon Georgetown for its excellent half-court execution.
The strange thing about the game was that it was completely opposite of what one would expect having watched UNC play during this tournament. Carolina jumps off to a quick start, shooting extremely well and taking an early rebounding edge. Hibbert, Ewing and Sapp got into early foul trouble. UNC seemed just as effective or even more effective with Stepheson and Thompson in the paint as they did with Hansbrough and Wright. At half-time, I had penciled the Heels into the Final Four. There's no way they could blow this, is there? They have every possibile advantage: G'Town in foul trouble, Hibbert looked tired, holding to a steady 6-8 point advantage for most of the first half. I expected the game to continue until about 7 minutes left when UNC pulled away using their well rested legs and the foul situation to bury Georgetown. And honestly, it did. But the Hoyas still fought back, and I think it caught the Heels off guard. They kept looking for that dagger to end the game, but kept coming up short. Defensively, they collapsed, allowing easy layup after easy layup for the Hoyas. They lost their edge on the boards, the Hoyas got all the loose balls. Once overtime rolled around, UNC looked ready to go home. They had no fight left in them. Meanwhile, the Hoyas kept executing beautifully on the offense side of the ball, and built an insurmountable lead.
Now, if there is any justice and righteousness left in the hearts of the basketball gods, Georgetown will meet UCLA for the national title. More on that this week, however...
This year's Carolina team, though, is thoroughly hateable. They have no identity, no personality, and their particular style of basketball is at once fun to watch, and disgusting. There's nothing wrong with an up-tempo style with lots of run-outs and fancy displays of athleticism. However, this team has dreadful half-court execution. Watching Georgetown break down UNC's overrated defense on almost every possession proved that winning in March is about half-court execution more than it is about throwing talent at teams and hoping you wear them down. The basketball gods smiled upon Georgetown for its excellent half-court execution.
The strange thing about the game was that it was completely opposite of what one would expect having watched UNC play during this tournament. Carolina jumps off to a quick start, shooting extremely well and taking an early rebounding edge. Hibbert, Ewing and Sapp got into early foul trouble. UNC seemed just as effective or even more effective with Stepheson and Thompson in the paint as they did with Hansbrough and Wright. At half-time, I had penciled the Heels into the Final Four. There's no way they could blow this, is there? They have every possibile advantage: G'Town in foul trouble, Hibbert looked tired, holding to a steady 6-8 point advantage for most of the first half. I expected the game to continue until about 7 minutes left when UNC pulled away using their well rested legs and the foul situation to bury Georgetown. And honestly, it did. But the Hoyas still fought back, and I think it caught the Heels off guard. They kept looking for that dagger to end the game, but kept coming up short. Defensively, they collapsed, allowing easy layup after easy layup for the Hoyas. They lost their edge on the boards, the Hoyas got all the loose balls. Once overtime rolled around, UNC looked ready to go home. They had no fight left in them. Meanwhile, the Hoyas kept executing beautifully on the offense side of the ball, and built an insurmountable lead.
Now, if there is any justice and righteousness left in the hearts of the basketball gods, Georgetown will meet UCLA for the national title. More on that this week, however...
Saturday, March 24, 2007
Elite 8 Preview Part 2
I'm going to keep giving this a shot, and hopefully I can get at least 1 right tomorrow. How the hell was I supposed to know that Ohio State would actually play a good game today?
#1 Florida vs. #3 Oregon, 2:40 pm
In a rare match-up that I actually predicted correctly from the start, Florida will put their title defense on the line against an Oregon team that's playing its best ball of the season. Expect Oregon to play a similar game that Butler did. Their calling card is a lot of 3s: 42% of their shots come from 3s. They don't get a lot of offensive rebounds, they don't have a lot of size, they don't get to the line very often.
Because Florida has the massive size advantage, expect Horford to get a lot of touches. If Green, Humphrey and Brewer are hitting 3s, Florida will win pretty easily. I expect Oregon to take an early lead, as Purdue and Butler both did. But over the course of the game, the interior advantage Florida has will wear on Oregon's bigs. Foul trouble and fatigue will mount, and Oregon won't be able to stay in it late. This is the course every upset bid against a major team has followed thus far. But by God I hope I'm wrong.
Florida 85
Oregon 68
#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Georgetown, 5:05 pm
This is the FAR more interesting match-up. With UNC you have a high flying, fast running team of athletes that goes 10 or 12 deep on the bench. They tend to wear opponents down by keeping the tempo up: they play a remarkable pace of 73 possessions per game. Their strengths are on the inside and at the point. Brandan Wright is a freak: 6'9" with a 7'5" wingspan, and great mobility and athleticism. He has no game outside of 7 or 8 feet from the basket, but close to the basket he's almost unstoppable. Tyler Hansbrough is a tough workhorse who is not especially athletic or physically daunting, but is relentless, strong and works hard. He has a knack of putting the ball in the basket in strange and improbable ways and hitting the offensive boards well. Ty Lawson may be the most important piece to the puzzle, though. He keeps the pace high, and runs their opposition into the ground. USC couldn't keep the pace up and lost their legs in the last 6 or 7 minutes.
Georgetown is just as efficient as UNC offensively, but they do it in the half-court: patiently, slowly, methodically. They play 9 or 10 deep, and are just as athletic as UNC. Similarly, G'town's strengths are on the inside. Hibbert, Ewing and Green make up the bulk of G'Town's size which has caused everyone fits. Green, especially, may be the most underrated player in the country. He's a leader type who can do anything on the court and performs well in the clutch. Georgetown is also one of the country's best offensive rebounding team, so it is difficult for teams to get the tempo up (only twice all year has G'town played a 70+ possession a game tempo). Expect G'Town to try to establish an inside game and a slow tempo, while UNC tries to push it. UNC has played 10 games this year under 70 possessions, though, so I expect the pace will favor G'Town. If the Hoyas can hit the offensive boards hard, shoot reasonably well from the outside, and stay out of foul trouble on the inside (may be impossible with the way these games are being called now, but regardless...), they have a very good chance at beating the Heels. If Carolina shoots pretty well from the outside or GT's bigs get in foul trouble, expect the Heels to win. It should be close, though.
Georgetown 71
North Carolina 69
#1 Florida vs. #3 Oregon, 2:40 pm
In a rare match-up that I actually predicted correctly from the start, Florida will put their title defense on the line against an Oregon team that's playing its best ball of the season. Expect Oregon to play a similar game that Butler did. Their calling card is a lot of 3s: 42% of their shots come from 3s. They don't get a lot of offensive rebounds, they don't have a lot of size, they don't get to the line very often.
Because Florida has the massive size advantage, expect Horford to get a lot of touches. If Green, Humphrey and Brewer are hitting 3s, Florida will win pretty easily. I expect Oregon to take an early lead, as Purdue and Butler both did. But over the course of the game, the interior advantage Florida has will wear on Oregon's bigs. Foul trouble and fatigue will mount, and Oregon won't be able to stay in it late. This is the course every upset bid against a major team has followed thus far. But by God I hope I'm wrong.
Florida 85
Oregon 68
#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Georgetown, 5:05 pm
This is the FAR more interesting match-up. With UNC you have a high flying, fast running team of athletes that goes 10 or 12 deep on the bench. They tend to wear opponents down by keeping the tempo up: they play a remarkable pace of 73 possessions per game. Their strengths are on the inside and at the point. Brandan Wright is a freak: 6'9" with a 7'5" wingspan, and great mobility and athleticism. He has no game outside of 7 or 8 feet from the basket, but close to the basket he's almost unstoppable. Tyler Hansbrough is a tough workhorse who is not especially athletic or physically daunting, but is relentless, strong and works hard. He has a knack of putting the ball in the basket in strange and improbable ways and hitting the offensive boards well. Ty Lawson may be the most important piece to the puzzle, though. He keeps the pace high, and runs their opposition into the ground. USC couldn't keep the pace up and lost their legs in the last 6 or 7 minutes.
Georgetown is just as efficient as UNC offensively, but they do it in the half-court: patiently, slowly, methodically. They play 9 or 10 deep, and are just as athletic as UNC. Similarly, G'town's strengths are on the inside. Hibbert, Ewing and Green make up the bulk of G'Town's size which has caused everyone fits. Green, especially, may be the most underrated player in the country. He's a leader type who can do anything on the court and performs well in the clutch. Georgetown is also one of the country's best offensive rebounding team, so it is difficult for teams to get the tempo up (only twice all year has G'town played a 70+ possession a game tempo). Expect G'Town to try to establish an inside game and a slow tempo, while UNC tries to push it. UNC has played 10 games this year under 70 possessions, though, so I expect the pace will favor G'Town. If the Hoyas can hit the offensive boards hard, shoot reasonably well from the outside, and stay out of foul trouble on the inside (may be impossible with the way these games are being called now, but regardless...), they have a very good chance at beating the Heels. If Carolina shoots pretty well from the outside or GT's bigs get in foul trouble, expect the Heels to win. It should be close, though.
Georgetown 71
North Carolina 69
Friday, March 23, 2007
Elite 8 Preview
Saturday's Games
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Memphis, 4:40 pm
I'm converted on Memphis. They are one of the most explosive and athletic teams in the country. To top it off, Calipari has really got these guys defending. Chris Douglas-Roberts is clearly not hampered by his ankle injury. Memphis will try to use Dozier and Dorsey as physically as possible to keep Oden out of the game offensively. Memphis is not a spectacular team offensively, and they win their games with defense, but their players' physical assets will be huge in creating shots against OSU's defense. They will be able to take the ball to the basket hard, and will try to get Oden in foul trouble.
Ohio State is 33-3. This has been a tremendous season for them. And as badly as they have played during the last two games, it shows a lot of resilience to come back from certain defeat twice in a row to win. OSU's strengths need not be enumerated: they are top 10 in both offense and defensive efficiency. They sport an NBA franchise center at the dawn of his career. They have one of the best freshman classes ever. As good as they are, though, they are still freshmen. OSU has gone through huge lapses in defensive intensity and offensive coherence this tournament. Against Xavier, they could come back. Against "lop up them 3s" Tennessee, they could come back. Against a really, really good, really really athletic Memphis team, I don't think they can.
Memphis 69
Ohio State 63
#1 Kansas vs. #2 UCLA, 7:05 pm
Expect Kansas vs. Southern Illinois, part 2. UCLA tried to use their athleticism to speed up the game against Pitt, but against Kansas they will try to keep it slow. The backcourt edge probably goes to UCLA but not by much. Some weren't impressed by Kansas' performance against SIU, but I actually was. SIU played tremendously on the defensive side - probably with more intensity than I've seen any team play during this tournament. But even so, Kansas played a quieter and better D.
Once again, UCLA will really have no answer to Rush or Wright. They're big, quick, long and excellent scorers and rebounders. Expect a slow paced game, maybe 65 possessions each side, that is driven by the backcourts. I expect Julian Wright will be a big key for Kansas. If he plays well offensively, then Kansas should come out on top in a close one.
Kansas 64
UCLA 60
#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Memphis, 4:40 pm
I'm converted on Memphis. They are one of the most explosive and athletic teams in the country. To top it off, Calipari has really got these guys defending. Chris Douglas-Roberts is clearly not hampered by his ankle injury. Memphis will try to use Dozier and Dorsey as physically as possible to keep Oden out of the game offensively. Memphis is not a spectacular team offensively, and they win their games with defense, but their players' physical assets will be huge in creating shots against OSU's defense. They will be able to take the ball to the basket hard, and will try to get Oden in foul trouble.
Ohio State is 33-3. This has been a tremendous season for them. And as badly as they have played during the last two games, it shows a lot of resilience to come back from certain defeat twice in a row to win. OSU's strengths need not be enumerated: they are top 10 in both offense and defensive efficiency. They sport an NBA franchise center at the dawn of his career. They have one of the best freshman classes ever. As good as they are, though, they are still freshmen. OSU has gone through huge lapses in defensive intensity and offensive coherence this tournament. Against Xavier, they could come back. Against "lop up them 3s" Tennessee, they could come back. Against a really, really good, really really athletic Memphis team, I don't think they can.
Memphis 69
Ohio State 63
#1 Kansas vs. #2 UCLA, 7:05 pm
Expect Kansas vs. Southern Illinois, part 2. UCLA tried to use their athleticism to speed up the game against Pitt, but against Kansas they will try to keep it slow. The backcourt edge probably goes to UCLA but not by much. Some weren't impressed by Kansas' performance against SIU, but I actually was. SIU played tremendously on the defensive side - probably with more intensity than I've seen any team play during this tournament. But even so, Kansas played a quieter and better D.
Once again, UCLA will really have no answer to Rush or Wright. They're big, quick, long and excellent scorers and rebounders. Expect a slow paced game, maybe 65 possessions each side, that is driven by the backcourts. I expect Julian Wright will be a big key for Kansas. If he plays well offensively, then Kansas should come out on top in a close one.
Kansas 64
UCLA 60
Thursday Recap
#1 Kansas 61
#4 Southern Illinois 58
I underestimated Southern Illinois' defense. So Ill managed to slow the pace down and gave Kansas a tough game. Even so, they got a lot of lucky bounces and Kansas played a much better game, despite the score. Even though I got the winner right, I'd say I got this prediction wrong because I thought Kansas would win easily. UCLA will probably be a similar game, but SIU pretty much played the game of their lives.
#2 UCLA 64
#3 Pittsburgh 58
The game went pretty much as expected. A slow game, Gray played pretty well, but UCLA's backcourt was too much. Pitt was not a spectacular 3 seed. Kansas will be a much tougher game for UCLA. Collins, Chalmers and Robinson are just as quick and just as good as Collison and Afflalo.
#1 Ohio State 85
#2 Tennessee 84
I really wonder how many lives this OSU team has. They should have lost to Xavier, but escaped. They should have lost to Tennessee, but they escaped. This time, Tennessee's cold streak in the 2nd half coupled with Ron Lewis being on fire, and a lot of friendly calls, to add up to a meager 1 point victory. To their credit, they adjusted well to stop UT from getting all the easy buckets they got in the first half, and even though Oden had a pretty poor game, his block at the end was a fitting end. I'm just not sure that OSU's luck will keep going against Memphis.
#2 Memphis 65
#3 Texas A&M 64
I have been so wrong about Memphis. I thought they were overrated all year long because they have played only 6 power conference games. Clearly, that meant nothing. They cruised to a 16-0 record in the C-USA, and won their tournament easily. I really need to stop doubting them. They are tremendous defensively, incredibly athletic and are out to prove everyone like me wrong. I think they will be playing next weekend.
Good games on the whole last night. I only hope they are as good tonight.
#4 Southern Illinois 58
I underestimated Southern Illinois' defense. So Ill managed to slow the pace down and gave Kansas a tough game. Even so, they got a lot of lucky bounces and Kansas played a much better game, despite the score. Even though I got the winner right, I'd say I got this prediction wrong because I thought Kansas would win easily. UCLA will probably be a similar game, but SIU pretty much played the game of their lives.
#2 UCLA 64
#3 Pittsburgh 58
The game went pretty much as expected. A slow game, Gray played pretty well, but UCLA's backcourt was too much. Pitt was not a spectacular 3 seed. Kansas will be a much tougher game for UCLA. Collins, Chalmers and Robinson are just as quick and just as good as Collison and Afflalo.
#1 Ohio State 85
#2 Tennessee 84
I really wonder how many lives this OSU team has. They should have lost to Xavier, but escaped. They should have lost to Tennessee, but they escaped. This time, Tennessee's cold streak in the 2nd half coupled with Ron Lewis being on fire, and a lot of friendly calls, to add up to a meager 1 point victory. To their credit, they adjusted well to stop UT from getting all the easy buckets they got in the first half, and even though Oden had a pretty poor game, his block at the end was a fitting end. I'm just not sure that OSU's luck will keep going against Memphis.
#2 Memphis 65
#3 Texas A&M 64
I have been so wrong about Memphis. I thought they were overrated all year long because they have played only 6 power conference games. Clearly, that meant nothing. They cruised to a 16-0 record in the C-USA, and won their tournament easily. I really need to stop doubting them. They are tremendous defensively, incredibly athletic and are out to prove everyone like me wrong. I think they will be playing next weekend.
Good games on the whole last night. I only hope they are as good tonight.
Thursday, March 22, 2007
Farewell Josh
Fox sports reports that Josh McRoberts is leaving Duke for the NBA. Best of luck to him, and hope he finds his place in the pros.
Wednesday, March 21, 2007
Sweet 16 Preview
Thursday's games
#1 Kansas vs. #4 Southern Illinois, 7:10 et
Kansas is the best defensive team in the country, and have shown the most improvement among all the elite teams this year. The key to Kansas' attack will be Chalmers, Wright and Rush. Offensively, Rush and Wright create serious match-up problems because of their size and athleticism. Rush is a 6'6" SG, a rarity in the college game. His length and ability to elevate and drive to the hole make him the latest favorite offensive weapon in Kansas' arsenal. Wright, a 6'8" versatile forward, can play any position on the floor. But Kansas really wins on defense. Every player on their roster can really defend. Their interior D is exceptional, managing to block 18.3% of opponents' shots this year.
Southern Illinois is no slouch, though. They have a solid defense. The Missouri Valley champs are the 12th most efficient defensive team, and have thus far racked up a 29-6 record. As a team they shoot 37% from 3, and they know how to win. But their anemic offense (81th in efficiency) will face its most difficult test Thursday. Teams shoot 40.5% against Kansas. In the end, it will take almost a perfect game and a massive Kansas meltdown for the Jayhawks to not move on to the Elite 8.
Kansas 84
So. Ill. 68
#2 Memphis vs. #3 Texas A&M, 7:27 ET
There's a lot to like with Memphis: they're young, they're athletic and they really play defense. These guys haven't lost a game since December 20. Calipari claims this team is better than his #1 seed team that went down in the regional finals to UCLA 50-45. I disagree. This is a good team, though. I underestimated them when the tournament started, because they have only played 6 power conference teams this year, going a paltry 3-3. It's unclear how well Memphis will deal with Chris Douglas-Roberts' ankle sprain. It may be nothing of importance, or it may be costly.
I believe Texas A&M has a clear edge for a few reasons. First, A&M is used to playing elite teams. In fact, they have beaten a deeper and more athletic team than Memphis: Kansas. Second, A&M has a fantastic senior floor leader in Acie Law who may be the most clutch player in the game right now. And finally, A&M has more balance. They are 6th in overall offensive efficiency, and 11th in overall defensive efficiency. They play solid team defense, and are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at 42.4% as a team. Memphis will struggle maintaining a lead, and if the game is close at the end, A&M has a massive advantage when Law has the ball in his hands. This is a classic example of a great offense running full steam into a superb defense. On the whole, A&M is the more complete and experienced team.
Texas A&M 75
Memphis 69
#2 UCLA vs. #3 Pittsburgh, 9:40 ET
In another intriguing Sweet 16 match-up, student meets pupil as former Pitt coach Ben Howland leads the 28-5 Bruins against his successor, Jamie Dixon's, 29-7 Panthers. UCLA started the season 26-3 and 15-2 in the Pac-10 before losing 2 straight. Hell, their only out of conference loss all year was an away game when their starting point guard, Darren Collison, wasn't playing. UCLA's staple all season has been their stifling defense, 3rd in the nation in efficiency, and their slow tempo (about 64 possessions a game). Affalo and Collison combine to make, perhaps, the best backcourt in the game.
Meanwhile, Pitt is out of character, with a better offense than defense, with the 13th most efficient offense in the country. The weight of their team is on the wide shoulders of 7' 270 lb Senior Aaron Gray. Pitt would gladly play at UCLA's pace, themselves averaging a marginally slower tempo. At any rate, both teams looked vulnerable as they both nearly blew big 2nd round leads. Outside of late season losses to Washington and Cal, UCLA has looked formidable all season. While their offensive production might not be sufficient to win a title, it should be enough to get past Pitt.
UCLA 64
Pitt 58
#1 Ohio State vs. #5 Tennessee, 9:57 ET
Ohio State is the #1 team in the country, and riding a 19 game winning streak... but they are lucky to be here at this point. Xavier had them on the ropes - leading 61-59, Oden commits what I think was an obvious intentional foul. Only calling it a personal, Justin Cage is put on the line for 2. After making one and missing the other, Xavier should have fouled an OSU player after passing midcourt. Instead, Ron Lewis drains a 3 with 2 seconds left and sends the game into OT. Xavier never recovered. Ohio State has a great record, but let's not forget that they are primarily a freshman driven team. Greg Oden may be the future, and OSU is not the same team without him, but he can get in foul trouble.
In the first match-up between these schools, Tennessee forced 20 turnovers with their press. This is a quick, energetic squad that can really play defense. They simply mauled Florida earlier in Knoxville, and have shown that they can run with Ohio State already. I'm usually wary of very talented, but young teams on a long winning streak. Sometimes they begin to think that it's easy to win in the Sweet 16. It's not.
Tennessee 70
Ohio State 66
Friday's games
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler, 7:10 ET
Not much has to be said about Florida at this point. They are the defending national champions, and the media darlings for college basketball all year. Mostly, they have lived up to the billing by being the 2nd most efficient offensive team in the country. When they are shooting well from the outside, they are a tremendously difficult team to defend with Horford and Noah on the inside. That has, however, been a point of inconsistency. Horford is consistently good, but Brewer, Green and Humphrey have been off and on from beyond the arc. Furthermore, Florida has been off and on defensively throughout the year.
Butler is a dangerous team, but on paper is no match for Florida. The game will be decided on outside shooting. Butler shoots 3s on 49% of its shots. Against Maryland, Butler managed 12 for 26 shooting from 3 (again, keeping pace with their season average - 26 3 point attempts on 52 total shots). Additionally, their zone managed to stymie Maryland's dominant inside game enough to pull out the win. If Florida shoots 5 for 18 from 3 like they did against Purdue, and Butler shoots 45%+ from 3, then Butler has a definite chance to pull out the upset. The contingencies and the variables are too great to depend upon, however.
Florida 77
Butler 69
#2 Georgetown vs. #6 Vanderbilt, 7:27 ET
Georgetown's MO this year has been a slow, incredibly methodical and efficient game. They have the 4th highest effective field goal percentage (56.9%) in the country, and the 7th highest offensive rebound percentage (40.4% of misses). They are athletic, deep, and patient. They can shoot from beyond the arc, they can create match-up difficulties for any team with their size and athleticism, and they can pound it inside to the 7'2" Hibbert.
Vanderbilt is a fantastic 3 point shooting team, in their season defining 83-70 win over Florida, they shot 47%, and 57% total from the field. The key to that game was to establish Byars as a dominant offensive force (24 points on 11 for 19 shooting) and to shut down Horford (14 points on 1 for 7 shooting). The problem for Vandy is that they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. In order to win, Vandy will need to be on fire from 3 and somehow manage to shut down Hibbert, Green and Ewing on the inside. However, Georgetown manages the 8th best opponent 3 point FG %, and Georgetown is much, much bigger than Vanderbilt. Things look bleak for Vanderbilt.
Georgetown 74
Vanderbilt 67
#3 Oregon vs. #7 Nevada-Las Vegas, 9:40 ET
In my opinion, Oregon and Vegas create one of the more intriguing match-ups in the final 16. Both teams have been up and down, and are hitting their stride at just the right time. It's hard to judge how good these teams are by their aggregate season's performance. Oregon sports 5 guys who shoot over 40% from 3, and the 8th most efficient offense in the country. They've now won 8 straight, beating tournament teams Arizona, USC, and Washingston State by an average of 16 points.
Vegas is on a 9 game winning streak. Having displaced the highest seed to go down so far in the tournament (Wisconsin), they will also be coming in to this game with a great deal of confidence. But a few notes so far. Georgia Tech was quite a chique pick as a dark horse. They had the athletes and the talent to go far, and had an intriguing draw with ailing Wisconsin in the second round. But Georgia Tech had a poor offensive game, including a 27% night from beyond the arc and 59% from the free throw line. UNLV escaped in a fairly even game. Wisconsin, of course, lost Butch, and since have struggled. In two games against Ohio State with Butch, UW won a game 72-69 and lost one 49-48. Without Butch at the end of the Big 10 tournament, OSU walked over UW in an embarrassing 66-49 blowout. UNLV has had a good run, but they haven't faced a team as good as Oregon yet.
Oregon 72
UNLV 66
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Southern California, 9:57 ET
Finishing the triumverate of mega-hyped teams, North Carolina has, statistically, lived up to expectations. They feature the country's best offense, and fourth best defense, and a 28-6 record. North Carolina is deep, and athletic, but we tend to forget that they are still young. They have spells of inconsistency, and massive lapses in defensive intensity. UNC's greatest strength is in the paint, as they are not a very good outside shooting team. Carolina will try to keep the pace high and cause turnovers and easy baskets.
USC ran past Texas with solid defense, holding the Longhorns to just 37.5% shooting and 25% from 3. Against the Tar Heels, though, the Trojans will need to force their pace. They will need to keep Carolina in the half-court, and try to keep the ball out of the paint. They are better off letting Terry, Ellington and Lawson try to beat them from 15+ feet than defending Hansbrough or Wright man for man. Although Terry is evidently fighting strep throat, he's been coming up pretty big for the Heels of late. USC's only shot is clogging the paint, keeping UNC off the offensive glass, and slowing the game down. They will also need to shoot well from afar to keep it close. A possible, but unlikely upset.
North Carolina 83
Southern California 71
#1 Kansas vs. #4 Southern Illinois, 7:10 et
Kansas is the best defensive team in the country, and have shown the most improvement among all the elite teams this year. The key to Kansas' attack will be Chalmers, Wright and Rush. Offensively, Rush and Wright create serious match-up problems because of their size and athleticism. Rush is a 6'6" SG, a rarity in the college game. His length and ability to elevate and drive to the hole make him the latest favorite offensive weapon in Kansas' arsenal. Wright, a 6'8" versatile forward, can play any position on the floor. But Kansas really wins on defense. Every player on their roster can really defend. Their interior D is exceptional, managing to block 18.3% of opponents' shots this year.
Southern Illinois is no slouch, though. They have a solid defense. The Missouri Valley champs are the 12th most efficient defensive team, and have thus far racked up a 29-6 record. As a team they shoot 37% from 3, and they know how to win. But their anemic offense (81th in efficiency) will face its most difficult test Thursday. Teams shoot 40.5% against Kansas. In the end, it will take almost a perfect game and a massive Kansas meltdown for the Jayhawks to not move on to the Elite 8.
Kansas 84
So. Ill. 68
#2 Memphis vs. #3 Texas A&M, 7:27 ET
There's a lot to like with Memphis: they're young, they're athletic and they really play defense. These guys haven't lost a game since December 20. Calipari claims this team is better than his #1 seed team that went down in the regional finals to UCLA 50-45. I disagree. This is a good team, though. I underestimated them when the tournament started, because they have only played 6 power conference teams this year, going a paltry 3-3. It's unclear how well Memphis will deal with Chris Douglas-Roberts' ankle sprain. It may be nothing of importance, or it may be costly.
I believe Texas A&M has a clear edge for a few reasons. First, A&M is used to playing elite teams. In fact, they have beaten a deeper and more athletic team than Memphis: Kansas. Second, A&M has a fantastic senior floor leader in Acie Law who may be the most clutch player in the game right now. And finally, A&M has more balance. They are 6th in overall offensive efficiency, and 11th in overall defensive efficiency. They play solid team defense, and are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at 42.4% as a team. Memphis will struggle maintaining a lead, and if the game is close at the end, A&M has a massive advantage when Law has the ball in his hands. This is a classic example of a great offense running full steam into a superb defense. On the whole, A&M is the more complete and experienced team.
Texas A&M 75
Memphis 69
#2 UCLA vs. #3 Pittsburgh, 9:40 ET
In another intriguing Sweet 16 match-up, student meets pupil as former Pitt coach Ben Howland leads the 28-5 Bruins against his successor, Jamie Dixon's, 29-7 Panthers. UCLA started the season 26-3 and 15-2 in the Pac-10 before losing 2 straight. Hell, their only out of conference loss all year was an away game when their starting point guard, Darren Collison, wasn't playing. UCLA's staple all season has been their stifling defense, 3rd in the nation in efficiency, and their slow tempo (about 64 possessions a game). Affalo and Collison combine to make, perhaps, the best backcourt in the game.
Meanwhile, Pitt is out of character, with a better offense than defense, with the 13th most efficient offense in the country. The weight of their team is on the wide shoulders of 7' 270 lb Senior Aaron Gray. Pitt would gladly play at UCLA's pace, themselves averaging a marginally slower tempo. At any rate, both teams looked vulnerable as they both nearly blew big 2nd round leads. Outside of late season losses to Washington and Cal, UCLA has looked formidable all season. While their offensive production might not be sufficient to win a title, it should be enough to get past Pitt.
UCLA 64
Pitt 58
#1 Ohio State vs. #5 Tennessee, 9:57 ET
Ohio State is the #1 team in the country, and riding a 19 game winning streak... but they are lucky to be here at this point. Xavier had them on the ropes - leading 61-59, Oden commits what I think was an obvious intentional foul. Only calling it a personal, Justin Cage is put on the line for 2. After making one and missing the other, Xavier should have fouled an OSU player after passing midcourt. Instead, Ron Lewis drains a 3 with 2 seconds left and sends the game into OT. Xavier never recovered. Ohio State has a great record, but let's not forget that they are primarily a freshman driven team. Greg Oden may be the future, and OSU is not the same team without him, but he can get in foul trouble.
In the first match-up between these schools, Tennessee forced 20 turnovers with their press. This is a quick, energetic squad that can really play defense. They simply mauled Florida earlier in Knoxville, and have shown that they can run with Ohio State already. I'm usually wary of very talented, but young teams on a long winning streak. Sometimes they begin to think that it's easy to win in the Sweet 16. It's not.
Tennessee 70
Ohio State 66
Friday's games
#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler, 7:10 ET
Not much has to be said about Florida at this point. They are the defending national champions, and the media darlings for college basketball all year. Mostly, they have lived up to the billing by being the 2nd most efficient offensive team in the country. When they are shooting well from the outside, they are a tremendously difficult team to defend with Horford and Noah on the inside. That has, however, been a point of inconsistency. Horford is consistently good, but Brewer, Green and Humphrey have been off and on from beyond the arc. Furthermore, Florida has been off and on defensively throughout the year.
Butler is a dangerous team, but on paper is no match for Florida. The game will be decided on outside shooting. Butler shoots 3s on 49% of its shots. Against Maryland, Butler managed 12 for 26 shooting from 3 (again, keeping pace with their season average - 26 3 point attempts on 52 total shots). Additionally, their zone managed to stymie Maryland's dominant inside game enough to pull out the win. If Florida shoots 5 for 18 from 3 like they did against Purdue, and Butler shoots 45%+ from 3, then Butler has a definite chance to pull out the upset. The contingencies and the variables are too great to depend upon, however.
Florida 77
Butler 69
#2 Georgetown vs. #6 Vanderbilt, 7:27 ET
Georgetown's MO this year has been a slow, incredibly methodical and efficient game. They have the 4th highest effective field goal percentage (56.9%) in the country, and the 7th highest offensive rebound percentage (40.4% of misses). They are athletic, deep, and patient. They can shoot from beyond the arc, they can create match-up difficulties for any team with their size and athleticism, and they can pound it inside to the 7'2" Hibbert.
Vanderbilt is a fantastic 3 point shooting team, in their season defining 83-70 win over Florida, they shot 47%, and 57% total from the field. The key to that game was to establish Byars as a dominant offensive force (24 points on 11 for 19 shooting) and to shut down Horford (14 points on 1 for 7 shooting). The problem for Vandy is that they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. In order to win, Vandy will need to be on fire from 3 and somehow manage to shut down Hibbert, Green and Ewing on the inside. However, Georgetown manages the 8th best opponent 3 point FG %, and Georgetown is much, much bigger than Vanderbilt. Things look bleak for Vanderbilt.
Georgetown 74
Vanderbilt 67
#3 Oregon vs. #7 Nevada-Las Vegas, 9:40 ET
In my opinion, Oregon and Vegas create one of the more intriguing match-ups in the final 16. Both teams have been up and down, and are hitting their stride at just the right time. It's hard to judge how good these teams are by their aggregate season's performance. Oregon sports 5 guys who shoot over 40% from 3, and the 8th most efficient offense in the country. They've now won 8 straight, beating tournament teams Arizona, USC, and Washingston State by an average of 16 points.
Vegas is on a 9 game winning streak. Having displaced the highest seed to go down so far in the tournament (Wisconsin), they will also be coming in to this game with a great deal of confidence. But a few notes so far. Georgia Tech was quite a chique pick as a dark horse. They had the athletes and the talent to go far, and had an intriguing draw with ailing Wisconsin in the second round. But Georgia Tech had a poor offensive game, including a 27% night from beyond the arc and 59% from the free throw line. UNLV escaped in a fairly even game. Wisconsin, of course, lost Butch, and since have struggled. In two games against Ohio State with Butch, UW won a game 72-69 and lost one 49-48. Without Butch at the end of the Big 10 tournament, OSU walked over UW in an embarrassing 66-49 blowout. UNLV has had a good run, but they haven't faced a team as good as Oregon yet.
Oregon 72
UNLV 66
#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Southern California, 9:57 ET
Finishing the triumverate of mega-hyped teams, North Carolina has, statistically, lived up to expectations. They feature the country's best offense, and fourth best defense, and a 28-6 record. North Carolina is deep, and athletic, but we tend to forget that they are still young. They have spells of inconsistency, and massive lapses in defensive intensity. UNC's greatest strength is in the paint, as they are not a very good outside shooting team. Carolina will try to keep the pace high and cause turnovers and easy baskets.
USC ran past Texas with solid defense, holding the Longhorns to just 37.5% shooting and 25% from 3. Against the Tar Heels, though, the Trojans will need to force their pace. They will need to keep Carolina in the half-court, and try to keep the ball out of the paint. They are better off letting Terry, Ellington and Lawson try to beat them from 15+ feet than defending Hansbrough or Wright man for man. Although Terry is evidently fighting strep throat, he's been coming up pretty big for the Heels of late. USC's only shot is clogging the paint, keeping UNC off the offensive glass, and slowing the game down. They will also need to shoot well from afar to keep it close. A possible, but unlikely upset.
North Carolina 83
Southern California 71
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)