Caught Up

Well exams are finally over and I'm finally caught up with defensive ratings. I haven't tallied them for the season yet, and probably won't until after the Pitt game tonight.

Speaking of the Pitt game, this should be a really exciting game and a great test for Duke since DeJuan Blair is clearly the most skilled and powerful big man Duke has faced all year. We have heard so much from the "experts" about how Duke will struggle defending the post this year, so this will be an illustrative game.

Pitt is an interesting team. They lost 3 key seniors from last year's Sweet 16 squad (Graves, Gray, Kendall) but might be better this year with the addition of super-frosh DeJuan Blair, a 6'7" 250 lb post player with very long arms who shoots 57.6% eFG, is a monstrous rebounding (21.9% ORB rate, 24.0% DRB rate) and who is an excellent defender (7.9% block rate, 6.4% steal rate - wow). Their point guard, Fields, has been excellent for them all year, sporting something like a 3.5 A:T ratio. Sam Young is probably their best overall player, an athletic junior 6'6" swingman who can rebound very well (9% ORB rate, 19.5% DRB rate), and shoot 3s (14 for 25 on the year). He plays the most minutes with the highest usage rate.

In addition to those three main pieces, Pitt has a few guys who can shoot really well from 3 (Ramon and Cook both shot over 40% last year). They have 6 upperclassmen in their 8 man rotation (3 seniors, 3 juniors) and have a ton of experience playing in the Garden and on a big stage.

Duke's advantage will be depth. Despite the fact that Pitt plays 8 guys 10 minutes or more and a 9th about 9 minutes, Pitt doesn't have real depth in the sense that outside of Fields, Young and Blair, their offensive weapons taper off a little. Cook and Ramon can shoot 3s, but neither can carry their team. Offensively they are an excellent rebounding team and take care of the ball. They are a pretty good shooting team overall but it must be remembered that they have not played the best defenses this year.

Blair, for all his dominance, doesn't play a whole lot - a bit over 20 minutes. I suppose that is related to early conditioning issues, or maybe foul problems (that, I don't know). At any rate, you have to expect that Fields will play more than he has all year on a stage like this, and that Young and Blair's performance will be paramount for the Panthers to pull off the win. When they are sitting, you have to think Duke has a huge advantage because 1 through 8, Duke does not see a huge drop in talent.

Of most interest to me will be seeing how Duke deals with Blair when he is playing. Who will guard him? With Lance Thomas questionable, you have to think a guy like McClure would see a fair amount of time on Blair. Obviously Zoubek will at times, but I worry about that match-up because Zoubek is better suited guarding other really tall guys, whereas Blair is smaller with great strength and mobility.

For Duke a lot of this will just ride on how we shoot. Pitt is pretty good defensively, but no team thus far has really been able to contain our perimeter attack and prevent open looks from 3 or in the lane. A big question for me is, how will they guard Duke? Some teams this year have guarded Duke by trying to prevent the penetration with a zone or with a lot of help defense, and in all cases so far, they have been burned from 3. It's really hard to catch this Duke team on an "off night" shooting because 7 guys are greenlit to shoot 3s whenever they are open, and of those guys 6 are up near or above 40%. If Scheyer is off one night, King might be on. If both are off, Paulus is probably on. Nelson has been on fire from 3 recently as well. Albany's game plan (granted, it was Albany) was to take away the 3s, and Duke still managed to create 26 good looks from 3 and hit 15 of them.

Obviously the other big issue will be rebounding. What will Duke do to keep Pitt off their offensive glass? So far this year, Duke has played 2 very good offensive rebounding teams in Illinois and Wisconsin, and against Wisconsin, we did a very good job limiting second chance opportunities, whereas against Illinois we clearly didn't. I felt that Illinois game was sort of "flukey" because a number of offensive rebounds bounced around in scrums and ended up in Illinois' possession, and we should all know from Football outsiders that fumble recovery is largely a product of luck.

Finally of interest is foul trouble. Pitt has had a pretty poor free throw rate thus far (even Blair has), so that suggests that they aren't quite as aggressive attacking the basket as other teams like North Carolina or even Duke. It will be important for Zoubek, McClure, and Singler to stay out of foul trouble.

If Duke can execute offensively, stay out of foul trouble and limit Pitt's second chances reasonably, then I can almost guarantee that Duke wins. None of that is written in stone though.

Exams

I'm facing about a couple weeks of studying/writing papers to finish up the semester, so it might be a bit before I'm completely caught up on defensive stats/ratings from the Wisconsin and Davidson games. Luckily for both this blog and the Duke team (6 games in 12 days), there is not another game until next Saturday (home against Michigan - who lost to Harvard in what I consider an appropriate and poetic statement) - I should be caught up by then.

Duke 82 Wisconsin 58

Coming into this game, Wisconsin had given up just .679 ppp all year, completely dominating the defensive glass (grabbing 81% of possible defensive boards) and playing overall suffocating defense, holding teams to 25.9% from beyond the arc and 37.9% from inside the arc. Against Duke, they looked lost tonight as Duke spread the floor and hit 9 3s in the first half on their way to a 48-25 halftime lead.

A couple of days ago, I identified some points to look for in the game. To follow up:

• What will Wisconsin guard? Well at first it seemed like nothing. On the inside, the Badgers did a good job collapsing and preventing good looks. I was also impressed how hard they hustled back on run-outs. They didn't show Duke a zone and none of their guards were capable of really containing Henderson or Nelson's penetration. Duke had very few bad looks as a result, and took a big lead early.
• Rebounding. Not surprisingly, Wisconsin did a good job rebounding the ball, but Duke also did a great job preventing Wisconsin to get the kind of second chance opportunities that Illinois had. Illinois grabbed 18 offensive rebounds to Duke's 23 defensive rebounds, whereas Wisconsin grabbed 17 offensive rebounds to Duke's 28 defensive rebounds (37.8% ORB for Wisconsin - close to 6% lower than their season average). Duke's good work on the defensive glass allowed for the smaller Devils to push the tempo well.
• Pace. On this, I was wrong. Well, sort of. I said that the game would probably not be fast paced. I anticipated a game more like Illinois where both teams kept good care of the ball. Well, Duke rebounded well on the defensive glass (as noted) and forced 18 turnovers on 74 possessions (basically 1 in 4 possessions). Furthermore, after a couple of games where Duke played a more normal pace, the Devils pushed the ball every possession hard and rarely waited long before finding a good shot.
  
• Foul trouble. Duke's defensive pressure actually caused some minor early foul trouble on Duke's guards, with only Lance Thomas really suffering from foul trouble in the paint. Zoubek ended up playing a much smaller role than I anticipated - though it's not surprising why. Early on Duke tried to attack Wisconsin with superior quickness - and the formula worked spectacularly. Furthermore, with King on fire (5 for 9 from behind the arc) and Singler playing well too, the line-up that seemed to see a lot of time included King and Singler at forward positions.
  

Some additional notes on the game:

• 8 players played double digit minutes with Zoubek played 7. Zoubek dropped some rebounds, but overall played well defensively and had one nice post move that was negated by an iffy offensive foul. I still have hope!
• Can we lavish King with any more superlatives? While all the national focus is on Singler (and quite deservedly so), King has quietly shot 19 for 37 from behind the arc and has an eFG% of 71% for the season to date. Add to that that he has turned it over on only 7.2% of his possessions, has a defensive rebounding rate of 19.3%, an assist rate of 11%, a steal rate of 3.4%, and a block rate of 5.2% and he's looking to be one of the big steals of this class. I have always thought King would be a dangerous weapon to have, but I never dreamed that he could have such a knack for causing turnovers and just playing smart basketball. He will be the next great hated Duke player - a leftie white guy who is animated, shoots 3s and isn't particularly athletic. I just hope we'll have the guns around so he won't have to carry the team like JJ did.
• Greg Paulus is shooting north of 46% from 3. Jon Scheyer is shooting 50%. Taylor King is shooting over 51% from 3. Duke as a team is shooting 42.4% now. Frankly I don't care if Duke is dependent on the 3 point shot if they shoot at this clip. For the record, the team is shooting 58.1% eFG for the season with just a 20.6% TO rate. I'd like to see the turnovers be reduced even more (tonight's game against Wisconsin was a good example of how we can avoid stupid turnovers).
  
• Gerald Henderson is evolving into a star. For the season, he now uses 27% of Duke's possessions at about 109 efficiency. His turnovers are down (15.9% TO rate), his rebounds are up (16.4% DRate), has a good assist rate (13.6%), and has the 3rd highest block rate on the team (4.5%, behind King's 5.2% and Zoubek's 8%).
  
• Wisconsin turned it over on 1/4th of their possessions, which is a full 7% higher than their season average of 17.8%.
  

In other ACC/Big 10 news:

• The ACC is clowning the Big 10

That's all.

Duke 78 EKU 43

Duke beat Eastern Kentucky by 35 yesterday (78-43) in a game that is hardly worth mentioning. EKU played a strange zone and tried to prevent Duke's penetration while disguising the defense as man (thus, enticing players to try to drive to the basket). To their credit, it frustrated Duke's offense, holding the Devils to 12 points in the first 10 minutes. After some offensive adjustments, Duke went on to score 66 in the next 30 minutes of play.

Interesting stats:

• Duke had the worst game of the year in terms of turnovers, turning it over 20 times in about 69-70 possessions. Luckily the Devils also shot 67% eFG from the field. A game this sloppy in the future will mean a loss. Hopefully the Devils go back to being careful with the ball.
• Duke is shooting 41.7% from behind the arc for the season, and over 57% from inside the arc.
  
• Taylor King and Jon Scheyer are 25 for 48 from beyond the arc on the season.
  
• King has a 139.3 individual efficiency and almost 25% usage so far, with only 3 turnovers. Classic catch and shoot player. He was described in HS as a "stick of dynamite" and I'm not sure a better analogy could ever exist.

Anyway, another tough game tomorrow against Wisconsin. Since Wisconsin is in the Big 10, they are obviously a great rebounding team (if you can't score, you need to be able to at least rebound), and they're big and physical and very good defensively. They don't turn it over often. They have lost a lot of offense from last year. They aren't a very good shooting team. Sounds like Illinois in some ways.

Things to watch out for:

• What will Wisconsin guard? If they try to man-up, Nelson and Henderson will have to be in attack mode offensively. If they play a softer man or a zone, look for lineups with King, Scheyer, and Paulus to get a fair amount of floor time.
  
• There's almost no question that Wisconsin will outrebound Duke - the question is will it matter? Can Duke guard offensive rebounds that lead directly to points? Can Duke shoot well enough to not need offensive rebounds? So far Duke has shot very well from the field, but didn't guard Illinois particularly well when trying to score off the offensive glass. Look for that to be a point of emphasis.
• The game will not likely be fast paced. Coach K has said that this team will play a more up-tempo game than last year's team. That is true, but an essential part of playing up-tempo will be causing turnovers against a stingy Wisconsin team. The game won't be as fast as Duke wants unless the Devils can control the defensive glass pretty well or force a fair number of open court turnovers.
• Who is in foul trouble? Zoubek will probably play a reasonably big role in this game. If he commits dumb, quick fouls, Duke could find itself severely out muscled in the middle.
  

Prediction? Let's say, Duke 76, Wisconsin 59

Duke 77 Marquette 73 and Season comparison thus far

This was a huge win for Duke. The difference was that in the first half (where we enjoyed our biggest lead), we only turned it over 4 times. We made a number of stupid mistakes in the 2nd half and Marquette got back into the game. We shot the ball very well and were led by Singler and Nelson's exceptional efforts. The other difference maker from last year is that while last year Dominic James was 9 for 15 for 25 points and McNeal had 17 points and 6 rebounds, this year we gave James different looks, putting a healthy Paulus on him, putting Smith on him, putting Nelson on him, changing up and playing some zone and even putting Singler on him for a couple of possessions. This year James shot 4 for 16 and McNeal only had 7 shots and 4 fouls.

Had we taken better care of the ball in the second half, I think Duke would have won fairly easily. Even so, the close game was a good experience for this Duke team.

In lieu of posting specific stats for this game, I've decided that since the 06-07 season started with a schedule similar to this year, that I would compare the stats for our returning players and for the team for the first 5 games of last year against the first 5 games of this year.

		Duke				Opp.
	2006		2007		2006		2007
eFG%	57.1%		58.0%		40.7%		45.4%
TO%	26.6%		19.5%		24.4%		25.9%
ORB %	43.7%		37.9%		31.2%		31.4%
FT Rate	35.1%		29.3%		28.5%		31.0%
Tempo	66		74
Offensive Efficiency	110.7		120.6
Defensive Efficiency	81.1		85.7
3-Point FG %	46.2%		41.6%		27.5%		35.0%
2-Point FG%	53.9%		55.8%		40.5%		42.6%
Free Throw %	72.3%		73.8%		62.3%		67.1%
Block %	13.2%		13.7%		6.2%		7.8%
Steal %	13.7%		13.6%		11.5%		7.6%
3PA/FGA	21.2%		32.9%		29.6%		28.2%
A/FGM	53.1%		52.9%		45.5%		51.3%

Player		eFG%		TO%		Floor%		Efficiency		Usage		PPG
Demarcus Nelson	2006	64.6%		21.1%		56.1%		116.7		21.7%		13.3
	2007	55.4%		19.3%		55.5%		111.6		22.0%		12.7
Jon Scheyer	2006	54.7%		20.0%		51.0%		124.5		13.2%		8.7
	2007	62.5%		17.3%		55.9%		128.5		16.8%		10.4
Greg Paulus	2006	47.6%		46.2%		38.1%		83.6		23.9%		7.6
	2007	58.6%		24.5%		50.9%		117.7		16.7%		9.6
Gerald Henderson	2006	44.4%		13.6%		51.3%		95.5		23.1%		5.6
	2007	53.9%		11.5%		56.6%		114.0		24.8%		11.9
Lance Thomas	2006	60.0%		23.0%		57.8%		107.0		22.8%		8.4
	2007	57.9%		15.0%		65.5%		124.5		12.9%		6.7
Brian Zoubek	2006	65.2%		29.9%		57.9%		112.3		38.4%		8.3
	2007	61.1%		20.4%		61.0%		121.5		19.5%		5.9
Marty Pocius	2006	50.0%		45.9%		27.6%		65.9		15.0%		1.4
	2007	54.6%		21.6%		52.6%		119.9		25.8%		5.5
Kyle Singler		65.6%		20.2%		60.8%		128.4		23.3%		14.9
Taylor King		61.5%		12.7%		49.9%		122.7		23.2%		5.8
Nolan Smith		43.8%		27.3%		45.2%		97.1		24.8%		6.4

• It's clear that every player has improved. What's interesting is that Nelson was playing as well, roughly, last year for the first 5 games as he did for the rest of the season. He was a big part of Duke's early season success, and when he became less of a factor last year, obviously, Paulus became much more of an offensive factor. At this point last year, however, Nelson had played 159 minutes. This year he has played 140 (which averages to 28 a game). I think we'll find Nelson a stronger presence by season's end as a result.
• Even though Duke's defense has been a fair bit less efficient this year than at this time last year, the difference hasn't been a result of McRoberts' absence. Most people thought we'd have trouble defending near the basket and rebounding defensively without McRoberts in the line-up. Thus far, the difference has been that teams have shot 35% against us from beyond the arc, something that simply cannot continue. In addition, at this point last year, teams were shooting around 62% from the free throw line (by the end of the year teams shot 69% from the line), and this year teams are shooting 67% - so clearly, we will give up more points from the line (a more realistic number, actually). We've done as good a job defensively rebounding as we did last year at this time, and caused more turnovers. In addition, our block rate is nearly identical to what it was last year, even though teams are shooting about 2% better from inside the arc.
  
• Offensively we are tremendously improved. We are actually rebounding offensively worse than last year at this time (though a 38% ORB rate would be great for the season if we keep it up), but our turnovers are the real key. It's amazing what turning the ball over on 7% fewer possessions opens up - over 10 more points per 100 possessions.
• Lance Thomas so far this year has a free throw rate of 89.5. In other words, he has taken 17 free throws and only 19 shots from the field.
• Paulus' improvement is most stark. Not only is he turning the ball over much less often (10 turnovers vs 21 from last year - in a faster paced game), but he's shooting a higher percentage and playing much better defense.
• Last year at this time we had 25 blocks, 13 of them from McRoberts. This year, we have 28 blocks with no one logging over 6.
• We have 8 fewer steals this year than we had last year at this time - without McClure, who had 10 by himself. I think he will be an invaluable defensive addition to our line-up later in this season.
• As can be seen, all freshmen are playing well. Smith is having the hardest time acclimating himself offensively, but he looked improved against Marquette and had a solid Maui tournament. King has only played 55 minutes, probably because of his defense and because of Singler's exceptional play, but when he has been on the court, he's been a great offensive weapon.
  

Happy Turkey day!

Duke 79 Illinois 66

Again, Duke slowed it down and allowed the deficit to shrink a bit at the expense of wasting time. As a result, this was Duke's lowest scoring game of the year so far and the slowest paced game of the season, but a very efficient game for Duke. This is a good, tough, physical Illinois team that we beat tonight and it's a good, quality win.

Tomorrow night we have a rematch with Marquette from last year. Instead of providing in depth stats for tonight's game and tomorrow's game, I'm going to provide a up-to-this point in the season comparison between Duke 07-08 and Duke 06-07 since both squads will have played Marquette and 1 other quality team in the first 5 games. Obviously Duke started 4-1 last year. Marquette looked exceptional today against Oklahoma State - but OSU also looked very emotionless and stale. Marquette will be a great test for us, but even if we lose the game, I think we'll compare very favorably to last year's team. However, I think we can win.

Fun stats from tonight:

• Duke scored over 1.22 points per possession with only a 21.7% offensive rebounding rate. That happens when you shoot 64.4% (26 for 45 overall, 6 for 14 from 3) from the field and only turn it over on 17% of your possessions.
• Rebounding was a problem for us tonight - Illinois rebounded 43.9% of their available O-boards, while we only grabbed the aforesaid 21.7%. This is not shocking - Illinois was one of the better defensive rebounding teams last season, grabbing over 70% of available boards. They were a good, but not great, offensive rebounding team. But then again, a lot of their boards tonight on the offensive glass really just slipped right through Duke players' hands.
  
• Illinois only turned it over 10 times - but Duke played exceptional perimeter defense even so. They shot just 21 for 61 from the field, 4 for 15 from 3. We contained penetration very well. I wonder if this was an intentional strategy by the staff or more of an inability to cause turnovers. Either way, Duke will need to disrupt Marquette's guard play to throw off their offense. If James and McNeal are having a tough time getting good looks, Duke will probably win.
  

Duke 83 Princeton 61

I think the final score belies the nature of the game. Duke jumped out to a 31-4 lead and basically coasted the rest of the game, easing up on the defensive pressure a little and slowing the tempo a little. Perhaps it was a good tactical decision knowing that there is another game to be played tomorrow in a hot, humid gym where cramps are notoriously ubiquitous. I'm amused and shocked by the alarmist fans who consider a game where we led by 30 multiple times in the 2nd half after jumping out to a 31-4 lead to be unimpressive.

But hey, what about Kyle Singler, eh?

Player Stats		Eff.		Usage		Floor%		Real D-Rat		Real Stop%		%Dposs
Kyle Singler		136.1		29.0%		62.3%		76.0		70.2%		19.5%
Lance Thomas		117.3		16.5%		63.8%		86.6		4.4%		5.2%
Greg Paulus		100.5		15.9%		44.1%		83.5		44.1%		10.1%
Gerald Henderson		133		19.8%		66.3%		82.7		48.0%		14.1%
DeMarcus Nelson		102		18.9%		52.4%		67.6		84.1%		26.6%
Nolan Smith		83		18.2%		40.1%		40.4		113.4%		41.5%
Martynas Pocius		65.6		19.3%		31.0%		78.1		67.6%		15.4%
Dave McClure		N/A		N/A		N/A		62.3		76.5%		44.2%
Taylor King		108		18.3%		46.3%		86.7		31.0%		15.8%
Jon Scheyer		145.7		16.1%		70.0%		81.4		52.7%		17.5%
Brian Zoubek		104.2		25.9%		54.3%		79.9		52.6%		30.3%

Team Stats		Duke		Opp.
eFG%		49.32%		54.26%
TO%		15.04%		27.91%
ORB %		48.72%		9.09%
FT Rate		13.51%		29.79%
Tempo		73.13
Offensive Efficiency		113.50
Defensive Efficiency		83.42
3-Point FG %		25.00%		50.00%
2-Point FG%		53.70%		45.45%
Free Throw %		66.67%		71.43%
Block %		12.12%		5.56%
Steal %		16.75%		5.47%
3PA/FGA		27.03%		29.79%
A/FGM		38.24%		40.91%

• The conventional box score limits how impressive Singler's performance was tonight. Not only did he grab 1 out of 5 defensive boards he could have grabbed, but he had 9 offensive rebounds, nearly 35% of the boards he could have grabbed on the offensive end. That all being said, I don't feel that Singler carried Duke at all. I feel like he did some little things that really helped, and I feel like he was the benefactor of good team play. He's a quiet player, but the ultimate and perfect team player.
• Most shocking really is the differential in eFG%. eFG% is the most important stat correlated with winning, and yet Duke shot about 5% worse from the field than Princeton and won. What should we take away from a performance like this? Well, first of all, in spite of the poor shooting, we were pretty efficient on offense because we took care of the ball. Only 11 turnovers on 73 possessions. The completely dominance of the offensive glass was also pretty helpful.
• Princeton came into this game taking 3s on over half of their shots. Tonight they only took 14 3s on 47 total shots. In spite of shooting very well from the outside, Princeton was just not able to produce many points from their outside shooting. Inside the arc, Duke shot well (almost 54%) and Princeton shot poorly (around 45%).
  
• I don't know that I've seen a Duke team this aggressive on the boards. Singler and King both contribute a lot and, I think, will more than make up for the loss of McRoberts.
• Poor 3 point shooting again - which is 2 out of the first 3 games of the season. I didn't really feel a lot of these shots were forced either. Should we be concerned, or at least happy that we are getting good looks at this point in the year?
• Defensively, the perimeter really dominated. Smith in particular had an excellent offensive game, being credited with 2 steals, and forcing 2 other turnovers. He's struggled offensively these last two games, but there's no doubt that defensively he's very gifted (though he certainly showed his lack of experience letting a very easy backdoor cut go for a basket - one of 3 baskets he allowed tonight). McClure (playing out on the perimeter) and Nelson both contributed substantially to the overall defensive effort.

Overall hard to be too upset. I wish we had shot better, but we sort of hit cruise control once we took a 30 point lead. We'll most likely play Illinois tomorrow (who currently leads Arizona State and the Love Boat 47-31 with about 15 minutes left) which should provide us with an interesting test. We will need to play 40 minutes that game, and pressure pressure pressure. Of all the teams here, we should be the most capable of sustaining hard play for 40 minutes because of our depth. Let's see it tomorrow.