At this point in the season (15 out of 16 conference games played) we know who teams are. There's no more excuses left like "Well they can't do that against conference opponents" or "watch them fall apart on the road." In this post I am using ACC-only stats for UNC and Duke because I think out of conference scheduling tends to inflate personal and team stats.
First I want to comment on just how astounding the similarities between Duke and UNC are at this point, quantitatively.
Duke
| Tempo | 74.93 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | 113.17 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | 99.11 |
North Carolina
Tempo | 74.70 | |
| Offensive Efficiency | 114.00 | |
| Defensive Efficiency | 99.06 |
As it stands, Duke (13-2 overall, 7-0 at home, 6-2 on the road) and UNC (13-2 overall, 6-2 at home, 7-0 on the road) play an almost identical pace, and have almost identical offensive and defensive efficiencies in conference (slight edge to UNC, but Duke has played 1 more road game than UNC has).
What is even more remarkable than that is that the two teams accomplish this in completely different ways. Once again, the ACC comparison:
Duke
| Duke | Opp. | ||
| eFG% | 53.60% | 50.96% | |
| TO% | 17.17% | 24.72% | |
| ORB % | 33.33% | 34.91% | |
| FT Rate | 29.57% | 37.64% |
| 3-Point FG % | 37.43% | 34.01% | |
| 2-Point FG% | 51.82% | 50.95% | |
| Free Throw % | 68.75% | 66.57% | |
| Block % | 7.45% | 11.68% | |
| Steal % | 13.11% | 7.21% | |
| 3PA/FGA | 41.08% | 22.34% | |
| A/FGM | 49.88% | 45.67% |
As you can see, Duke's offense runs on a tripod of protecting the ball, getting good shots (especially 3s - 41.1% of Duke's shots are 3s in ACC play), and getting to the line. Some have noted that the combination of a high FT rate for Duke (almost 30%) and a very high 3PA:FGA rate is unusual and perhaps unintuitive, given the fact that 3 pointers tend not to draw many fouls. No doubt that is true, and I don't have exact numbers yet to support this claim, but my position is that Duke's shots are largely of the "layup" or "3 pointer" variety. Some players on occasion take the "mid-range" shot (Scheyer has some, Henderson, Paulus, Singler) but it's a rare shot. Duke's offense is built on the layup or 3 pointer model - a model that is incredibly intelligent.
Defensively, Duke's success hinges almost entirely on causing turnovers and preventing teams from taking 3s. The Duke defense is built on funneling opposing players into "dead zones" on the court (mid-range shots) and allowing those shots while trying to limit the layups/3pointers. The big weakness, in my estimation, is the lack of a real "help" presence in the paint for both blocking/altering close shots and rebounding, as those are Duke's main problems defensively. As a result, often Duke finds itself sending opposing teams to the line often, but the depth of this Duke team (Wake game notwithstanding) allows them to squeak by without debilitating foul trouble. Duke is often criticized for "switching" on screens on defense - largely a result of having few players who really can only defend in the paint (Zoubek being the obvious one) and being loaded with players capable of defending on the perimeter or in the paint (Henderson, Nelson, Thomas, McClure, Singler). Obviously none of those guys is a dominant paint defender, but the versatility really allows this Duke team to switch unlike any other team in the ACC and be successful doing so.
North Carolina
| UNC | Opp. | ||
| eFG% | 51.57% | 48.88% | |
| TO% | 19.43% | 18.76% | |
| ORB % | 42.86% | 29.07% | |
| FT Rate | 30.60% | 28.51% |
| 3-Point FG % | 37.04% | 32.84% | |
| 2-Point FG% | 50.45% | 48.67% | |
| Free Throw % | 78.44% | 66.79% | |
| Block % | 10.14% | 10.12% | |
| Steal % | 8.90% | 10.88% | |
| 3PA/FGA | 21.88% | 34.73% | |
| A/FGM | 53.52% | 54.48% |
UNC, by contrast, takes very few 3s. They shoot well from the field, but not exceptionally well. Their biggest offensive strengths are in rebounding the ball extremely well on the offensive glass and getting to the line (and hitting those free throws - first in the ACC at 78.4% - if only Duke could hit that percentage from the line...). Hansbrough accounts for a huge portion of those free throws (139 of the 302 made; 171 of the 385 attempted) as he is by far their most aggressive player. My theory here (and it's not a novel one) is that aggressive players taking "lay-up" type shots (Hansbrough, Henderson, Nelson, Ginyard) are more likely to get fouled than guys who are more finesse or jump-shot oriented (Ellington, Thompson, Paulus, Singler). Their FT rates certainly support that theory at any rate.
Defensively, UNC follow the same model as Georgetown or Stanford - they don't cause turnovers - they just play good positional defense and contest shots, then limit second chance opportunities. Unlike Duke, the "Carolina system" is a more structure, more traditional basketball system based on the 5 traditional positions. On screens, UNC forwards tend to hedge hard (sometimes too hard) and recover rather than switching. UNC's biggest weakness defensively has been defending offenses that depend on guards creating off the dribble (UNC struggled, relatively, with Clemson, Duke and Florida State more than they did against other squads in the ACC). Often times this means that teams can get good 3 point looks based on a drive and kick after the help has come. Indeed, almost 35% of UNC's opponents' shots have been 3s, and they are shooting almost 33%.
At any rate, the match-up is legendary in its perfection. Duke has trouble guarding aggressive, strong big guys and UNC has trouble guarding drive-and-kick offenses. Just like in the first game, it should be fascinating to watch the match-ups develop.
As it stands, I think Duke will win this match-up and it's not just because I'm a huge Duke fan who will be in the stands for his final game as a Duke student - but rather because I think it is essential to turn Duke over if you are going to beat Duke. Obviously, it's possible to beat Duke without that (look at the NC State game - Duke had only 8 turnovers and escaped with a 1 point win), but I think that takes more extraordinary circumstances (for instance, NC State shooting 61% eFG from the field and 86% on 29 free throws from the line). When Duke turns it over on less than 20% of its possessions this year, Duke is 20-0, and 12-0 in the ACC. When Duke turns it over on more than 23% of its possessions, Duke is 2-3 (with one of those wins being against Eastern Kentucky) and 1-2 in the ACC. Again, turnovers tend to be undervalued by the college basketball media at large because so often is the focus on how Duke lacks a big man and too infrequently is the focus on the fact that Duke's most potent offensive weapon is its ability to make-up for a lack of offensive rebounding by limiting turnovers.
That being said, UNC has not proven itself in ACC to be a team that is capable or willing of causing many turnovers. Furthermore, at home Duke has not had a game with a TO rate over 20% since Eastern Kentucky in late November. Everyone knows UNC will out-rebound Duke. Duke knows it, UNC knows it, anyone knows it. The game won't be decided on the boards, because Duke doesn't value rebounds the same way it does turnovers.
The second reason I think Duke wins is Wayne Ellington. In 3 games against Duke, he has struggled each time. There is no guarantee he does now, but I think on the road against a heated rival, in a hot, loud building with his best friend hounding him all night - I'd be surprised if he had a great night.
Just to remind everyone about the first game between these teams:
| Duke | Opp. | ||
| eFG% | 55.30% | 42.75% | |
| TO% | 18.11% | 24.02% | |
| ORB % | 27.50% | 42.55% | |
| FT Rate | 24.24% | 43.48% | |
| Tempo | 82.83 | ||
| Offensive Efficiency | 107.46 | ||
| Defensive Efficiency | 94.17 | ||
| 3-Point FG % | 44.83% | 17.65% | |
| 2-Point FG% | 45.95% | 48.08% | |
| Free Throw % | 59.26% | 63.33% | |
| Block % | 11.54% | 10.81% | |
| Steal % | 13.21% | 3.62% | |
| 3PA/FGA | 43.94% | 24.64% | |
| A/FGM | 53.33% | 60.71% |
Duke protected the ball, shot well, got to the line and caused turnovers. UNC shot very poorly from 3 point range but rebounded very well and got to the line and shot pretty near their ACC average inside the arc (they average about 50%). Both teams basically did what they do well but Duke managed to protect the ball and UNC didn't, and UNC shot poorly from the outside. If tomorrow's game looks anything like that - Duke wins again.
I look forward to an exciting, up-tempo, well-played game that ends with a proper send-off for DeMarcus Nelson - a player who really epitomizes all that is great about college basketball. A guy who fought injury, who played out of position, who witnessed the worst Duke season in a decade with him at the helm, and then who rose to become one of the best seniors in the country and a great leader. I'll be clapping until my hands go numb for DeMarcus tomorrow night and win or lose, he'll forever be one of the finest Blue Devils ever, both on and off the court.
Oh hey, did I mention Tyler Hansbrough is a weird looking dude?
