Did State Give Up?

As I stood in the stands in Cameron, I saw the half-time score at 46-37 in favor of the visiting team and wondered what the hell was wrong with my team. It's now the second straight game where we have trailed by 9 at half. A little part of me thought that we might actually lose, but another part of me was just worried that there was some problem with our defense that was being easily exploited by our last two opponents: something that can be very worrisome since we have the biggest game of the season so far coming up next Wednesday.

Duke took a 10-4 lead by pressuring the ball effectively, causing turnovers and attacking the basket aggressively, but then took a number of possessions off, reached more than defended with their feet and got into foul trouble as a team early. State shot 13 free throws in the final 5 minutes of the first half to take that half-time lead. Again, like with Maryland, Duke looked completely lost in the first half. Here are the first half stats.

		Duke	Opp.
eFG%		50.00%	65.38%
TO%		19.15%	24.28%
ORB %		18.75%	50.00%
FT Rate		54.17%	65.38%
Tempo		73.10
Offensive Efficiency		101.23
Defensive Efficiency		125.85
3-Point FG %		22.22%	80.00%
2-Point FG%		60.00%	52.38%
Free Throw %		72.22%	70.59%
Block %		14.29%	0.00%
Steal %		16.18%	8.21%
3PA/FGA		37.50%	19.23%
A/FGM		54.55%	46.67%

Again, like with Maryland, Duke stormed out of the locker room. State's lead had been erased when Paulus hit a 3 with 16:17 to go. After State made a couple of good plays to take the lead back to 55-52, Paulus hit another 3 to tie it. I am fairly sure at this point, State's players gave up.

From this point forward, Duke outscored State 37-17. Duke's offensive performance in the 2nd half is just absurd. Here are the stats:

		Duke	Opp.
eFG%		76.56%	50.00%
TO%		13.21%	30.35%
ORB %		76.92%	30.77%
FT Rate		18.75%	77.78%
Tempo		60.55
Offensive Efficiency		181.67
Defensive Efficiency		85.88
3-Point FG %		63.64%	0.00%
2-Point FG%		66.67%	64.29%
Free Throw %		66.67%	57.14%
Block %		0.00%	9.52%
Steal %		13.49%	6.61%
3PA/FGA		34.38%	22.22%
A/FGM		42.86%	44.44%

Even though Duke won this game by 20, I think there is some reason to be concerned about the current state of Duke's defense. While we started the season off exceptionally strong defensively and continued to be consistently excellent defensively for most of the season, 3 of the last 4 games have been lackluster defensively. To be fair, in all three games the poor defense was isolated to the first half, but such a game could spell disaster against a team with an elite offense like UNC.

I will need to re-watch the State game, but my impression was that after some early problems with Duke's pressure, State dropped 4 guys inside the arc and tried to slowly move the ball with screens and methodical dribbling into a position where they could get it to Hickson. That being said, a lot of their offensive success in the first half was due to shooting 4 of 5 from 3, and getting 13 free throws in the final 5 minutes.

Next Wednesday we will need to put together a complete game - two halves of excellent basketball if we are going to steal one from Carolina on the road. We need to play well defensively, we need to attack offensively, we need to have all 10 guys who get significant minutes on the same page and playing well. I will say this though - if we shoot as well as we did in the 2nd half against State, against any team, we will win. I don't think that's a terribly controversial position though.

Next up: Miami on Saturday

Maryland: A Tale of Two Halves

If ever this overused cliche used in the title of this post has been appropriate, it very well should be this game against Maryland over the weekend.

First Half

Maryland started off with great intensity and were successfully using their substantial frontcourt advantage to attack Duke, as well as executing a well scouted gameplan replete with effective cuts to the basket that exploited Duke's tendency to use guards to help on the blocks. Indeed, Maryland shot 65.5% eFG from the field against Duke in the first half, as well as rebounding 41.7% of available offensive boards to take a 9 point lead to halftime. One thing I found strange was how the announcers seemed to suggest that Duke was only in the game at half-time because Maryland had committed 13 turnovers to just 6 for Duke (a 28.5% TO rate for Maryland). But is this not Maryland's MO? Duke recorded 7 steals, as well as several offensive fouls - they were not unforced turnovers reflecting a mental lapse. This is exactly what most analysts should have expected coming in to the game: Duke would force Maryland to turn the ball over. Perhaps they should have said, "Maryland's white hot shooting is the only reason they are now in the lead against a Duke defense that has caused them to turn it over on almost 30% of their possessions!"

Duke, on the other hand, came out looking offensively stagnant. For the half, the Devils shot just 42.8% eFG and had a 26.1% offensive rebounding rate. The good news was that Maryland, predictably, was not causing Duke to turn the ball over.

At this point, while I was worried, I still knew that Maryland did not hold as big a lead as they could have shooting as well as they were and rebounding as effectively as they were.

The tempo-free team stats broke down like so:

		Duke	Opp.
eFG%		45.83%	65.52%
TO%		14.55%	28.54%
ORB %		26.09%	41.67%
FT Rate		25.00%	62.07%
Tempo		82.45
Offensive Efficiency		101.88
Defensive Efficiency		123.71
3-Point FG %		27.27%	33.33%
2-Point FG%		48.00%	69.57%
Free Throw %		81.82%	72.22%
Block %		4.35%	12.00%
Steal %		15.37%	2.43%
3PA/FGA		30.56%	20.69%
A/FGM		40.00%	77.78%

Second Half

It's hardly worth even mentioning that the key sequence of events in the second half came in the first minute. Maryland began with Osby turning it over, leading to Lance Thomas scoring on the other end. Immediately, DeMarcus Nelson stole the in-bound and laid it up to cut the lead to 5 within the first 40 seconds of the 2nd half. After Singler stole the entry pass to Osby at the other end, Duke ran a flawless inbound play straight to Nelson on the block who missed a layup but got the subsequent tip-in. Now with exactly 1 minute elapsed in the 2nd half, Maryland's substantial 9 point half-time lead was trimmed to 3. Sound familiar?

The second half was simply dominated by Duke. Maryland looked flat - perhaps tired or emotionally spent against a foe with greater depth and intensity than any team they have faced. The teams battled back and forth for the next 15 minutes or so, but Duke ultimately pulled ahead to take an 84-75 lead with 4:33 left. The stall was used quite effectively for the last minutes, despite Maryland pulling it to within 3 at 84-81 on 3 pointers by Hayes and Gist, and despite Vasquez getting to the line for a crucial 1 and 1 after Paulus made a costly turnover. Maryland had their chance then to make it a game for the last 2:42, but Duke closed out with good free throw shooting and a clutch driving lay-up by Nelson.

The second half team stats look thus:

		Duke	Opp.
eFG%		57.81%	50.00%
TO%		11.25%	25.51%
ORB %		50.00%	31.58%
FT Rate		43.75%	32.14%
Tempo		71.10
Offensive Efficiency		143.46
Defensive Efficiency		92.83
3-Point FG %		42.86%	33.33%
2-Point FG%		56.00%	50.00%
Free Throw %		77.78%	55.56%
Block %		9.09%	8.00%
Steal %		17.01%	8.44%
3PA/FGA		21.88%	21.43%
A/FGM		17.65%	76.92%

Completely different games.

Coming up: Duke has two games this week at home against North Carolina State and Miami. I will try to post what I think will be the key for the Devils in those games, but I hardly think I need to mention that Duke will be heavily favored in both affairs.

Next Wednesday is Duke at North Carolina.

Virginia and other such

I find it amusing that my last entry is entitled "caught up" to indicate that I have been diligent getting back on track with real defensive ratings and posting on my blog - and it was 3 weeks ago.

At any rate, Duke beat Virginia 87-65 last night in their first impressive game since the 111-70 win over Albany. Only shot 11 for 31 from 3, but shot nearly 64% inside the arc - so I think I can live with a subpar shooting performance from outside.

Duke's tandem of point guards combined for 17 points shooting 62.5% eFG, had 8 assists, 1 turnover, and 3 steals (plus who knows how many FTO since I am certainly and inexorably behind again).

My current goal is to do real defensive ratings for all games and then to calculate game-by-game individual W/L and then total W/L, concepts that I can explain in some depth at a later time. My sense is that it won't be too terribly enlightening but it should be interesting to look at.