Tuesday, May 15, 2007

Tempo-free Review of Duke 06-07 (albeit a bit late)

So I only recently calculated these numbers, not having entered into this kind of statistical frenzy since after the season was over. Nevertheless, here they are. These stats have been used before, so no need to explain them.

Player % of Min eFG% PtsProdG Floor % % of Poss Off. R Stop % Def. R
Demarcus Nelson 78.8% 53.8% 13.1 49.8% 24.0% 103.5 61.3% 89.7
Josh McRoberts 87.2% 50.9% 13.9 55.2% 21.9% 108.0 69.9% 86.2
Jon Scheyer 83.3% 50.5% 11.7 51.8% 18.0% 116.2 42.8% 97.3
Greg Paulus 80.0% 57.5% 11.9 46.1% 21.0% 105.7 40.1% 98.4
Gerald Henderson 46.3% 47.2% 6.6 48.6% 21.5% 96.6 50.5% 94.2
David McClure 53.6% 50.9% 4.5 48.9% 13.0% 96.2 73.4% 84.8
Lance Thomas 34.7% 56.8% 3.8 48.0% 17.3% 89.2 50.4% 94.2
Brian Zoubek 17.6% 52.4% 3.1 47.7% 28.6% 89.1 66.9% 87.5
Marty Pocius 14.5% 52.3% 1.8 38.1% 17.0% 87.9 36.3% 100.0

Some things that jumped out at me:
  • As maligned as McRoberts was, he was probably our most solid player offensively and defensively. He carried a larger offensive burden this year than last (when he was more efficient generally), but still managed a fairly good offensive year, and an excellent defensive year. Losing him will hurt, but with guys like Nelson, McClure, Thomas, Zoubek and Henderson (who will all be solid defenders), I think we can be a more positional defensive team instead of relying as much on help defense at the last resort.
  • On that note, I have to hope that Paulus recovering from an injury will really help his game. His O-rating was not spectacular, but he was quite the shooter, with our highest eFG%. His D-rating was not spectacular, but experience and a healthy foot may help him. I never expect him to be a dominant defensive presence like Nelson or Duhon but he could be a solid defender who causes a lot of turnovers like Wojo. It's worth noting that as a freshman, Paulus had an eFG% of 43, and an O-rating of 93. His D-rating was even worse, a 99.4 He's a real winner and has improved a lot despite injuries. I expect him to be a good leader next season.
  • Zoubek's numbers are encouraging, at least defensively. His numbers are based on limited PT, though, so it's unclear how they will translate if he has to play a lot of minutes.
  • You can see that our biggest troubles were offenisve in nature. Paulus was our only guy with over 50% minutes who had an eFG% over 55%. For comparison, last year we had 4. I hope bringing in guys like King, Smith and Singler who can all shoot the outside shot will help our offensive woes by stretching defenses a little and allowing guys like Nelson and Henderson the opportunity to slash. Who knows, maybe Thomas and Zoubek will show marked strides in developing low post games. And maybe we'll get Patterson too (who knows there - I'll wait until tomorrow to comment).
  • Nevertheless, despite having a rather unremarkable offense in terms of efficiency, we had a very young and -very- balanced offense. I love this. I felt it a bit of a liability in the Redick-era for us to place so much emphasis on one guy, especially one who had trouble with big, long, quick defenders (Garret Temple, for instance). I thought JJ would be the perfect guy for a balanced team (like Lee Humphrey at Florida), but as the centerpiece he presented problems. For example, as a sophomore he still led the team in scoring, but did so on just 21.4% of team possessions. He was efficient (122.5 rating), and fit into the team concept well. That team, not shockingly, was our last Final Four team.
  • Nelson had a good season. Defensively, he is what we expect: a shut down guy who forces lots of stops. Offensively, we'd obviously like to see more from him, but he's made big strides in his time here. I feel next year he can be a really good player.
All in all, an ok season. Our record did not indicate our performance. A few loose balls or rebounds going a different way, a few close shots missing or going in, and we'd have had a 25-8 or so season and not be so worried about the future.

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