Duke 77 Marquette 73 and Season comparison thus far

This was a huge win for Duke. The difference was that in the first half (where we enjoyed our biggest lead), we only turned it over 4 times. We made a number of stupid mistakes in the 2nd half and Marquette got back into the game. We shot the ball very well and were led by Singler and Nelson's exceptional efforts. The other difference maker from last year is that while last year Dominic James was 9 for 15 for 25 points and McNeal had 17 points and 6 rebounds, this year we gave James different looks, putting a healthy Paulus on him, putting Smith on him, putting Nelson on him, changing up and playing some zone and even putting Singler on him for a couple of possessions. This year James shot 4 for 16 and McNeal only had 7 shots and 4 fouls.

Had we taken better care of the ball in the second half, I think Duke would have won fairly easily. Even so, the close game was a good experience for this Duke team.

In lieu of posting specific stats for this game, I've decided that since the 06-07 season started with a schedule similar to this year, that I would compare the stats for our returning players and for the team for the first 5 games of last year against the first 5 games of this year.

		Duke				Opp.
	2006		2007		2006		2007
eFG%	57.1%		58.0%		40.7%		45.4%
TO%	26.6%		19.5%		24.4%		25.9%
ORB %	43.7%		37.9%		31.2%		31.4%
FT Rate	35.1%		29.3%		28.5%		31.0%
Tempo	66		74
Offensive Efficiency	110.7		120.6
Defensive Efficiency	81.1		85.7
3-Point FG %	46.2%		41.6%		27.5%		35.0%
2-Point FG%	53.9%		55.8%		40.5%		42.6%
Free Throw %	72.3%		73.8%		62.3%		67.1%
Block %	13.2%		13.7%		6.2%		7.8%
Steal %	13.7%		13.6%		11.5%		7.6%
3PA/FGA	21.2%		32.9%		29.6%		28.2%
A/FGM	53.1%		52.9%		45.5%		51.3%

Player		eFG%		TO%		Floor%		Efficiency		Usage		PPG
Demarcus Nelson	2006	64.6%		21.1%		56.1%		116.7		21.7%		13.3
	2007	55.4%		19.3%		55.5%		111.6		22.0%		12.7
Jon Scheyer	2006	54.7%		20.0%		51.0%		124.5		13.2%		8.7
	2007	62.5%		17.3%		55.9%		128.5		16.8%		10.4
Greg Paulus	2006	47.6%		46.2%		38.1%		83.6		23.9%		7.6
	2007	58.6%		24.5%		50.9%		117.7		16.7%		9.6
Gerald Henderson	2006	44.4%		13.6%		51.3%		95.5		23.1%		5.6
	2007	53.9%		11.5%		56.6%		114.0		24.8%		11.9
Lance Thomas	2006	60.0%		23.0%		57.8%		107.0		22.8%		8.4
	2007	57.9%		15.0%		65.5%		124.5		12.9%		6.7
Brian Zoubek	2006	65.2%		29.9%		57.9%		112.3		38.4%		8.3
	2007	61.1%		20.4%		61.0%		121.5		19.5%		5.9
Marty Pocius	2006	50.0%		45.9%		27.6%		65.9		15.0%		1.4
	2007	54.6%		21.6%		52.6%		119.9		25.8%		5.5
Kyle Singler		65.6%		20.2%		60.8%		128.4		23.3%		14.9
Taylor King		61.5%		12.7%		49.9%		122.7		23.2%		5.8
Nolan Smith		43.8%		27.3%		45.2%		97.1		24.8%		6.4

• It's clear that every player has improved. What's interesting is that Nelson was playing as well, roughly, last year for the first 5 games as he did for the rest of the season. He was a big part of Duke's early season success, and when he became less of a factor last year, obviously, Paulus became much more of an offensive factor. At this point last year, however, Nelson had played 159 minutes. This year he has played 140 (which averages to 28 a game). I think we'll find Nelson a stronger presence by season's end as a result.
• Even though Duke's defense has been a fair bit less efficient this year than at this time last year, the difference hasn't been a result of McRoberts' absence. Most people thought we'd have trouble defending near the basket and rebounding defensively without McRoberts in the line-up. Thus far, the difference has been that teams have shot 35% against us from beyond the arc, something that simply cannot continue. In addition, at this point last year, teams were shooting around 62% from the free throw line (by the end of the year teams shot 69% from the line), and this year teams are shooting 67% - so clearly, we will give up more points from the line (a more realistic number, actually). We've done as good a job defensively rebounding as we did last year at this time, and caused more turnovers. In addition, our block rate is nearly identical to what it was last year, even though teams are shooting about 2% better from inside the arc.
  
• Offensively we are tremendously improved. We are actually rebounding offensively worse than last year at this time (though a 38% ORB rate would be great for the season if we keep it up), but our turnovers are the real key. It's amazing what turning the ball over on 7% fewer possessions opens up - over 10 more points per 100 possessions.
• Lance Thomas so far this year has a free throw rate of 89.5. In other words, he has taken 17 free throws and only 19 shots from the field.
• Paulus' improvement is most stark. Not only is he turning the ball over much less often (10 turnovers vs 21 from last year - in a faster paced game), but he's shooting a higher percentage and playing much better defense.
• Last year at this time we had 25 blocks, 13 of them from McRoberts. This year, we have 28 blocks with no one logging over 6.
• We have 8 fewer steals this year than we had last year at this time - without McClure, who had 10 by himself. I think he will be an invaluable defensive addition to our line-up later in this season.
• As can be seen, all freshmen are playing well. Smith is having the hardest time acclimating himself offensively, but he looked improved against Marquette and had a solid Maui tournament. King has only played 55 minutes, probably because of his defense and because of Singler's exceptional play, but when he has been on the court, he's been a great offensive weapon.
  

Happy Turkey day!