Duke 86 New Mexico State 61

New Mexico State, on paper, looked like a good test for Duke. Conventional wisdom thus far this season is that without a true big man (aside from Zoubek I guess), Duke might run into problems against bigger teams who might be able to muscle around the Devils on the interior and out-rebound us. Well, test passed, I guess. While Duke did not do especially well on the offensive glass (12 offensive boards vs. NMSU's 24 defensive boards), we absolutely controlled the defensive glass, grabbing 26 defensive rebounds and allowing NMSU only 6 offensive boards. For the record, that means Duke grabbed 81.25% of the available defensive boards, against a big, experienced team.

That all being said, NMSU did not look particularly sharp. Defensively they were really unable to deal with Duke's offensive versatility and quickness. In fact, the Aggies experimented with smaller line-ups some in the second half in order to adjust to Duke, with some success (though with Duke leading 61-30, any success the Aggies had was pretty much futile).

This was also Duke's worst offensive game of the season, scoring only 1.06 ppp. When I realized this after I got home, I was a little surprised. I had thought we looked pretty good offensively in general. We shot 56% inside the arc, but only about 35% from beyond the arc (with many good, open looks - I really can't think of any 'forced' 3s that I found painful to watch). We didn't turn it over too often (17 TOs in about 81 possessions - about 21% TO rate - not great, but we've had worse). I think offensive execution was, overall, very pleasing, but we missed an unnerving number of easy lay-ups and a few too many open 3 pointers. We really ought to have scored over 100 in this game given how we played. A win is a win, eh?

Player		Eff.		Usage		Floor%
Kyle Singler		125.5		16.5%		65.3%
Lance Thomas		93.1		14.7%		44.7%
Greg Paulus		117.6		20.8%		52.2%
Gerald Henderson		79		25.6%		40.3%
DeMarcus Nelson		125		18.9%		54.0%
Nolan Smith		45.8		24.4%		21.4%
Martynas Pocius		144.1		15.8%		71.2%
Taylor King		90.7		18.5%		35.7%
Jon Scheyer		132.2		21.7%		57.1%
Brian Zoubek		105		11.8%		51.1%

Team Stats		Duke		Opp.
eFG%		54.48%		49.09%
TO%		20.98%		32.03%
ORB %		33.33%		18.75%
FT Rate		19.40%		23.64%
Tempo		81.03
Offensive Efficiency		106.14
Defensive Efficiency		75.29
3-Point FG %		34.62%		23.53%
2-Point FG%		56.10%		55.26%
Free Throw %		68.42%		53.85%
Block %		15.79%		7.32%
Steal %		13.55%		2.47%
3PA/FGA		38.81%		30.91%
A/FGM		56.25%		48.00%

Player		Est. D-Rat		Real D-Rat		Est. Stop%		Real Stop%		%Dposs
Kyle Singler		66.55		49.45		84.53%		90.29%		42.70%
Lance Thomas		81.95		78.53		46.83%		26.73%		8.99%
Greg Paulus		69.12		55.18		78.23%		92.71%		31.31%
Gerald Henderson		86.7		78.90		35.21%		17.78%		7.28%
DeMarcus Nelson		76.68		74.20		59.73%		54.43%		18.06%
Nolan Smith		90.55		76.41		25.79%		7.72%		1.72%
Martynas Pocius		75.07		80.66		63.67%		35.26%		23.23%
Taylor King		71.54		69.01		72.30%		69.29%		21.96%
Jon Scheyer		74.31		70.87		65.52%		65.91%		18.80%
Brian Zoubek		57.81		62.46		105.93%		85.47%		24.10%

Hello huge block of numbers! Here are the highlights:

• Some (mildly alarmist) Duke fans are semi-concerned over Kyle Singler's "bad" game. Let's recap. Singler shot 3 for 7 from the field, 4 for 5 from the free throw line for 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 steals, 2 blocks, 1 assist, no turnovers, forced 2 other turnovers, and 5.5 forced misses. This was against a big and physical team. Most of his shots were an inch or two from going in and were good shots. He, thus, managed a 125.5 rating (though using only 16.5% of poss), had the highest floor% on the team (65% is very high - the highest I could find for a season was Brand in 1999 with about 67.9%), with a 49.5 defensive rating, over a 90% stop% (very, very high), while being involved in over 42% of NMSU's possessions defensively while he was playing. Singler showed why you don't need to fill the stat sheet to be an invaluable player.
  
• So did Greg Paulus. One stat absent in the huge block of numbers above (but you'd find in a conventional box score) is the fact that Paulus had 8 assists and 3 turnovers. In Paulus' 26 minutes, he assisted almost half of the baskets made. Paulus may have been our 2nd most important defensive player tonight, himself causing 8 turnovers (4 credited as steals, 4 as other forced turnovers). He constantly harassed the Aggies' various ball handlers, showing a defensive aggression he lacked last year. He looks quicker, sure, but a big part of it is skill and attitude.
  
• Smith had a pretty poor game, shooting just 1 for 6 with 3 assists and 3 turnovers. Freshmen will have growing pains. I like, though, that a guy can have a poor game, and other guys are able to step up. We may not have a single guy whose performance our team's fate depends on. When Singler sat with 4 fouls, King managed to come in and had 4 rebounds in 17 minutes (grabbing 29.4% of the defensive boards he could).
  
• Zoubek contributed 11 solid minutes, grabbing 5 rebounds, blocking 2 shots (against a 7' center) and had only 1 foul. And zero turnovers.
  
• Nolan Smith was touted as a defensive specialist when he was hyped in the months prior to the season. And yet, in two games, he has zero steals, and 1 forced turnover. Notably, though, Paulus has used many more defensive possessions than Smith has, even accounting for the greater number of turnovers he's caused. Defensive stats have limitations - what about situations where a player's defense causes a player who might otherwise look to drive or shoot to give up the ball and be unable to use a team's possession? These are assets that stats cannot really cover very well. From watching the games, Smith has looked like a very good positional defender. When he learns to step it up and show Paulus' aggression defensively (who ever thought that would make sense?), he'll be an exceptional defender.
• Not all is well, though. NMSU shot over 55% inside the arc. Could that be a sign of a troubling interior defense, or could that be just a random fluke? It's hard to conclude anything at this point. The Aggies produced almost no points from the block, and a good few of their points inside the arc came from Hawkins driving to the basket or open mid-range jumpers after a Duke player gambled, and failed, defensively. Even so, as mentioned, we dominated the defensive glass, and caused 26 turnovers in 81 possessions. One interior defensive positive is that we managed to block 6 of the Aggies 38 2-point shots (15.8% - a ratio I cannot possibly expect for the season, but encouraging for the game).
  
• The tempo belies the speed of the game, as Coach K decided to slow it down into a form of "stall ball" for most of the last 7 :30 or so. The Aggies started the game trying to run with Duke, producing terrible results. Had we continued to run, we would likely have passed 90 possessions.