This year's match-up between the two should be intriguing on a number of levels that last year's weren't. First, this is the first time the teams have faced off since the Henderson/Hansbrough incident in the Dean Dome last year. While the players are over it, the media and the fans are not (what are the media and fans there for if not to dwell on stupid things to ham up a story?), and UNC fans will likely not give Gerald Henderson a particularly good welcome.
Last year, the teams were both largely new. Duke had 3 sophomores, a freshman and a junior in the starting 5 last year with 3 other freshmen coming off the bench. UNC had 3 freshmen in the starting 5 to go with senior Reyshawn Terry and sophomore Tyler Hansbrough. Add to that that UNC was cutting up the ACC (they were, in fact, very dominant in spite of their 11-5 record) and Duke was squeaking by and in the midst of a 2 game losing streak when they first met last year, and you have a fairly uninspired meeting between the two.
A year has made a lot of difference. UNC sits at 21-1 (6-1) and Duke at 19-1 (7-0). If the battle for supremacy in the ACC wasn't enough, if the history between the programs wasn't enough, if the return of Gerald Henderson to the Dean Dome wasn't enough... to add to all of that, the styles of the two teams are as diametrically opposed as I can imagine (I suppose one could play a slow tempo and the other fast - so they both have that in common).
Duke is a guard oriented offense without a post-presence and current with 4 guys hitting over 40% of their 3s. Duke is a deep team, playing 9 deep (probably 10 when/if Zoubek is healthy). Duke's offensive strengths are in shot selection (55.9% eFG for the season) and protecting the ball (18.2% TO rate) and getting to the line with aggressive play attacking the basket (28.8 FT rate). The Devils take a lot of 3s (37.9% of Duke's shots are 3s, 83rd in the nation), and move the ball very effectively. Defensively, the Devils are based on perimeter pressure and forcing opposing offenses farther and farther out from their comfort zone. They force teams to move across the court rather than move towards the basket which leads to uncomfortable offensive sets, bad shots, and loads of turnovers. On the interior though, Duke's defense is not fantastic as Thomas, McClure, Singler and King are all fairly small for guarding the post at this level.
UNC is almost entirely different. UNC is a forward oriented offense, focused on taking few 3s and attacking the offensive glass. In fact, Southern Utah is the only Division I school to take 3s less often than UNC. That being said, UNC is also the best offensive rebounding team in the country with an ORB rate of 42.9%. Despite taking so many 2s, the Heels' 2-point FG% is not spectacular at only 51.6% and they are a fairly average 3 point shooting team when they take them. Their strength offensively is relentlessly attacking the basket, getting offensive rebounds and getting to the line (29.9 FT rate). Defensively, they are less versatile than Duke and have more trouble defending in the perimeter, but their excellent defensive rebounding and their bigger, stronger interior players allow them to defend the post a bit better. The biggest defensive weakness of UNC's so far this year has been in transition, because outside of Lawson and maybe Ginyard, they really lack the kind of quickness and speed needed to get back on defense against an up-tempo team.
So here you have it. UNC is strong at what Duke is worst at; Duke is strongest at what UNC is worst at. It's like the immovable object meets the very weak force, and the unstoppable force meets the very weak object. It's very clear that both will give, but to what degree? Who will be able to defend just good enough to pull out the win?
One key to the game are injuries, obviously, as Ty Lawson sprained his ankle in the 2nd most publicized ankle sprain of the last week and a half. Without Lawson, UNC's offense falls into relative disarray. Consider that without Lawson in two games this year, UNC has scored 66 and 67 points on 70 possessions (in both games), whereas with Lawson at the helm UNC is the most efficient offense in the country. Lawson creates so many easy baskets for the Heels by just turning on the motors and blazing his way down the court and through defenders for an easy lay-up. If Lawson is hampered by his ankle or does not play, UNC turns into something of a half-court oriented team and is far more prone to turnovers and taking jumpshots. That said, Thomas might be a better defender, but he will be facing fresh Duke guards while he racks up the minutes late in the game.
UNC's gameplan will be pretty obvious. In the half-court they will set screen after screen trying to force Duke defenders to switch into a serious mismatch on Hansbrough, then dump the ball inside and go up strong. I like the fact that our defenders are versatile enough to be able to defend inside and out to some extent, but it might be a good idea not to switch if it ends up with Paulus on Hansbrough somehow. Just a thought. This is exactly what Maryland and Clemson did with some early success.
Defensively Duke will need to cause turnovers and force UNC to take jumpshots. The closer the Heels get to the basket, the more offensive rebounds they get, and while Duke is not a terrible defensive rebounding team, it's been clear this year that good offensive rebounding teams can attack the glass pretty effectively on the offensive end with superior size and strength. That's not a shocker. Clemson is about as effective an offensive rebounding team as UNC.
UNC, on the defensive side, will need to prevent penetration and will need to hope Duke is not shooting well from outside.
Bold predictions:
- The team that shoots better will likely win!
- The team with fewer turnovers will likely win!
- The team with more points on the scoreboard at the end of the game will almost certainly win!
Oh, and.. GO TO HELL CAROLINA, GO TO HELL!
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