The Value of Turnovers

So Duke has lost a 2nd game on the season, falling to Wake on the road 86-73.

While there are many reasons Duke lost this game, I want to focus on one: turnovers. In fact, the similarity between Duke's loss to Pitt and Duke's loss to Wake is pretty stark (minus the fact that, well, 5 Duke starters did not foul out against Pitt).

Against Pitt, Duke turned the ball over 20 times in 73 possessions. That game, Duke shot 14 for 26 from the free throw line. Against Wake, Duke turned the ball over 22 times in 84 possessions and shot 13 for 25 from the free throw line.

Ignoring every other problem in those games (poor shooting, trouble defending certain players, etc), both games would have been won had Duke: (1) hit free throws, and (2) protected the ball.

That being said, Wake has a fantastic young team who needs to learn to win on the road. Adding in what scout ranks as the 4th best class in the country for 2008 (including 2 5 star recruits - 7' center Ty Walker and 6'8" wing forward Al-Farouq Aminu, as well as 4 star 6'10" center Tony Woods) to the already lightning quick backcourt of Smith and Teague and Wake will likely be either favored to win the ACC next year or among the top 2 or 3 teams (along with usual suspects Duke and UNC). Smith, Teague, Aminu, Johnson and Walker will make a very talented, but very very young, core group for Wake next year.

For the above reasons, however, I am not convinced that this loss portends some inexorable decline in the way Duke has been playing so far. One key thing for Duke fans to potentially lose sleep over is the health of Gerald Henderson's right wrist. Henderson sprained it against UNC in a game where he took 10 shots and had 12 points. In the three games since, Henderson has been 4 for 15. That said, during that stretch Nolan Smith had also been recovering from a hyperextended knee he suffered against Maryland that set him back. Against Wake, Nolan shot 8 for 12 for 21 points in 18 minutes of play. If he can get back into the groove he was in earlier in the ACC season, it might take some stress off Henderson to produce offensively and he can let his wrist heal. Sprained wrists suck. I fell while skiing in the winter of 2006 and my wrist wasn't 100% for a good 5 or 6 months. I hope Henderson's wasn't as bad as mine.

Miami will be a good test to see how this team rebounds. In the first meeting, Duke only turned it over 11 times on 72 possessions and shot 26 for 40 from the free throw line. Again in a hostile environment, if Duke can protect the ball and hit free throws, we should walk away with a win. Miami is a bit of a better match-up for us than Wake, so here's to hoping the players come out prepared to play hard.