Elite 8 Preview Part 2

I'm going to keep giving this a shot, and hopefully I can get at least 1 right tomorrow. How the hell was I supposed to know that Ohio State would actually play a good game today?

#1 Florida vs. #3 Oregon, 2:40 pm

In a rare match-up that I actually predicted correctly from the start, Florida will put their title defense on the line against an Oregon team that's playing its best ball of the season. Expect Oregon to play a similar game that Butler did. Their calling card is a lot of 3s: 42% of their shots come from 3s. They don't get a lot of offensive rebounds, they don't have a lot of size, they don't get to the line very often.

Because Florida has the massive size advantage, expect Horford to get a lot of touches. If Green, Humphrey and Brewer are hitting 3s, Florida will win pretty easily. I expect Oregon to take an early lead, as Purdue and Butler both did. But over the course of the game, the interior advantage Florida has will wear on Oregon's bigs. Foul trouble and fatigue will mount, and Oregon won't be able to stay in it late. This is the course every upset bid against a major team has followed thus far. But by God I hope I'm wrong.

Florida 85
Oregon 68

#1 North Carolina vs. #2 Georgetown, 5:05 pm

This is the FAR more interesting match-up. With UNC you have a high flying, fast running team of athletes that goes 10 or 12 deep on the bench. They tend to wear opponents down by keeping the tempo up: they play a remarkable pace of 73 possessions per game. Their strengths are on the inside and at the point. Brandan Wright is a freak: 6'9" with a 7'5" wingspan, and great mobility and athleticism. He has no game outside of 7 or 8 feet from the basket, but close to the basket he's almost unstoppable. Tyler Hansbrough is a tough workhorse who is not especially athletic or physically daunting, but is relentless, strong and works hard. He has a knack of putting the ball in the basket in strange and improbable ways and hitting the offensive boards well. Ty Lawson may be the most important piece to the puzzle, though. He keeps the pace high, and runs their opposition into the ground. USC couldn't keep the pace up and lost their legs in the last 6 or 7 minutes.

Georgetown is just as efficient as UNC offensively, but they do it in the half-court: patiently, slowly, methodically. They play 9 or 10 deep, and are just as athletic as UNC. Similarly, G'town's strengths are on the inside. Hibbert, Ewing and Green make up the bulk of G'Town's size which has caused everyone fits. Green, especially, may be the most underrated player in the country. He's a leader type who can do anything on the court and performs well in the clutch. Georgetown is also one of the country's best offensive rebounding team, so it is difficult for teams to get the tempo up (only twice all year has G'town played a 70+ possession a game tempo). Expect G'Town to try to establish an inside game and a slow tempo, while UNC tries to push it. UNC has played 10 games this year under 70 possessions, though, so I expect the pace will favor G'Town. If the Hoyas can hit the offensive boards hard, shoot reasonably well from the outside, and stay out of foul trouble on the inside (may be impossible with the way these games are being called now, but regardless...), they have a very good chance at beating the Heels. If Carolina shoots pretty well from the outside or GT's bigs get in foul trouble, expect the Heels to win. It should be close, though.

Georgetown 71
North Carolina 69