Friday, March 23, 2007

Elite 8 Preview

Saturday's Games

#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Memphis, 4:40 pm

I'm converted on Memphis. They are one of the most explosive and athletic teams in the country. To top it off, Calipari has really got these guys defending. Chris Douglas-Roberts is clearly not hampered by his ankle injury. Memphis will try to use Dozier and Dorsey as physically as possible to keep Oden out of the game offensively. Memphis is not a spectacular team offensively, and they win their games with defense, but their players' physical assets will be huge in creating shots against OSU's defense. They will be able to take the ball to the basket hard, and will try to get Oden in foul trouble.

Ohio State is 33-3. This has been a tremendous season for them. And as badly as they have played during the last two games, it shows a lot of resilience to come back from certain defeat twice in a row to win. OSU's strengths need not be enumerated: they are top 10 in both offense and defensive efficiency. They sport an NBA franchise center at the dawn of his career. They have one of the best freshman classes ever. As good as they are, though, they are still freshmen. OSU has gone through huge lapses in defensive intensity and offensive coherence this tournament. Against Xavier, they could come back. Against "lop up them 3s" Tennessee, they could come back. Against a really, really good, really really athletic Memphis team, I don't think they can.

Memphis 69
Ohio State 63

#1 Kansas vs. #2 UCLA, 7:05 pm

Expect Kansas vs. Southern Illinois, part 2. UCLA tried to use their athleticism to speed up the game against Pitt, but against Kansas they will try to keep it slow. The backcourt edge probably goes to UCLA but not by much. Some weren't impressed by Kansas' performance against SIU, but I actually was. SIU played tremendously on the defensive side - probably with more intensity than I've seen any team play during this tournament. But even so, Kansas played a quieter and better D.

Once again, UCLA will really have no answer to Rush or Wright. They're big, quick, long and excellent scorers and rebounders. Expect a slow paced game, maybe 65 possessions each side, that is driven by the backcourts. I expect Julian Wright will be a big key for Kansas. If he plays well offensively, then Kansas should come out on top in a close one.

Kansas 64
UCLA 60

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