Sweet 16 Preview

Thursday's games

#1 Kansas vs. #4 Southern Illinois, 7:10 et

Kansas is the best defensive team in the country, and have shown the most improvement among all the elite teams this year. The key to Kansas' attack will be Chalmers, Wright and Rush. Offensively, Rush and Wright create serious match-up problems because of their size and athleticism. Rush is a 6'6" SG, a rarity in the college game. His length and ability to elevate and drive to the hole make him the latest favorite offensive weapon in Kansas' arsenal. Wright, a 6'8" versatile forward, can play any position on the floor. But Kansas really wins on defense. Every player on their roster can really defend. Their interior D is exceptional, managing to block 18.3% of opponents' shots this year.

Southern Illinois is no slouch, though. They have a solid defense. The Missouri Valley champs are the 12th most efficient defensive team, and have thus far racked up a 29-6 record. As a team they shoot 37% from 3, and they know how to win. But their anemic offense (81th in efficiency) will face its most difficult test Thursday. Teams shoot 40.5% against Kansas. In the end, it will take almost a perfect game and a massive Kansas meltdown for the Jayhawks to not move on to the Elite 8.

Kansas 84
So. Ill. 68

#2 Memphis vs. #3 Texas A&M, 7:27 ET

There's a lot to like with Memphis: they're young, they're athletic and they really play defense. These guys haven't lost a game since December 20. Calipari claims this team is better than his #1 seed team that went down in the regional finals to UCLA 50-45. I disagree. This is a good team, though. I underestimated them when the tournament started, because they have only played 6 power conference teams this year, going a paltry 3-3. It's unclear how well Memphis will deal with Chris Douglas-Roberts' ankle sprain. It may be nothing of importance, or it may be costly.

I believe Texas A&M has a clear edge for a few reasons. First, A&M is used to playing elite teams. In fact, they have beaten a deeper and more athletic team than Memphis: Kansas. Second, A&M has a fantastic senior floor leader in Acie Law who may be the most clutch player in the game right now. And finally, A&M has more balance. They are 6th in overall offensive efficiency, and 11th in overall defensive efficiency. They play solid team defense, and are one of the best 3 point shooting teams in the country at 42.4% as a team. Memphis will struggle maintaining a lead, and if the game is close at the end, A&M has a massive advantage when Law has the ball in his hands. This is a classic example of a great offense running full steam into a superb defense. On the whole, A&M is the more complete and experienced team.

Texas A&M 75
Memphis 69

#2 UCLA vs. #3 Pittsburgh, 9:40 ET

In another intriguing Sweet 16 match-up, student meets pupil as former Pitt coach Ben Howland leads the 28-5 Bruins against his successor, Jamie Dixon's, 29-7 Panthers. UCLA started the season 26-3 and 15-2 in the Pac-10 before losing 2 straight. Hell, their only out of conference loss all year was an away game when their starting point guard, Darren Collison, wasn't playing. UCLA's staple all season has been their stifling defense, 3rd in the nation in efficiency, and their slow tempo (about 64 possessions a game). Affalo and Collison combine to make, perhaps, the best backcourt in the game.

Meanwhile, Pitt is out of character, with a better offense than defense, with the 13th most efficient offense in the country. The weight of their team is on the wide shoulders of 7' 270 lb Senior Aaron Gray. Pitt would gladly play at UCLA's pace, themselves averaging a marginally slower tempo. At any rate, both teams looked vulnerable as they both nearly blew big 2nd round leads. Outside of late season losses to Washington and Cal, UCLA has looked formidable all season. While their offensive production might not be sufficient to win a title, it should be enough to get past Pitt.

UCLA 64
Pitt 58

#1 Ohio State vs. #5 Tennessee, 9:57 ET

Ohio State is the #1 team in the country, and riding a 19 game winning streak... but they are lucky to be here at this point. Xavier had them on the ropes - leading 61-59, Oden commits what I think was an obvious intentional foul. Only calling it a personal, Justin Cage is put on the line for 2. After making one and missing the other, Xavier should have fouled an OSU player after passing midcourt. Instead, Ron Lewis drains a 3 with 2 seconds left and sends the game into OT. Xavier never recovered. Ohio State has a great record, but let's not forget that they are primarily a freshman driven team. Greg Oden may be the future, and OSU is not the same team without him, but he can get in foul trouble.

In the first match-up between these schools, Tennessee forced 20 turnovers with their press. This is a quick, energetic squad that can really play defense. They simply mauled Florida earlier in Knoxville, and have shown that they can run with Ohio State already. I'm usually wary of very talented, but young teams on a long winning streak. Sometimes they begin to think that it's easy to win in the Sweet 16. It's not.

Tennessee 70
Ohio State 66


Friday's games

#1 Florida vs. #5 Butler, 7:10 ET

Not much has to be said about Florida at this point. They are the defending national champions, and the media darlings for college basketball all year. Mostly, they have lived up to the billing by being the 2nd most efficient offensive team in the country. When they are shooting well from the outside, they are a tremendously difficult team to defend with Horford and Noah on the inside. That has, however, been a point of inconsistency. Horford is consistently good, but Brewer, Green and Humphrey have been off and on from beyond the arc. Furthermore, Florida has been off and on defensively throughout the year.

Butler is a dangerous team, but on paper is no match for Florida. The game will be decided on outside shooting. Butler shoots 3s on 49% of its shots. Against Maryland, Butler managed 12 for 26 shooting from 3 (again, keeping pace with their season average - 26 3 point attempts on 52 total shots). Additionally, their zone managed to stymie Maryland's dominant inside game enough to pull out the win. If Florida shoots 5 for 18 from 3 like they did against Purdue, and Butler shoots 45%+ from 3, then Butler has a definite chance to pull out the upset. The contingencies and the variables are too great to depend upon, however.

Florida 77
Butler 69


#2 Georgetown vs. #6 Vanderbilt, 7:27 ET

Georgetown's MO this year has been a slow, incredibly methodical and efficient game. They have the 4th highest effective field goal percentage (56.9%) in the country, and the 7th highest offensive rebound percentage (40.4% of misses). They are athletic, deep, and patient. They can shoot from beyond the arc, they can create match-up difficulties for any team with their size and athleticism, and they can pound it inside to the 7'2" Hibbert.

Vanderbilt is a fantastic 3 point shooting team, in their season defining 83-70 win over Florida, they shot 47%, and 57% total from the field. The key to that game was to establish Byars as a dominant offensive force (24 points on 11 for 19 shooting) and to shut down Horford (14 points on 1 for 7 shooting). The problem for Vandy is that they are one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country. In order to win, Vandy will need to be on fire from 3 and somehow manage to shut down Hibbert, Green and Ewing on the inside. However, Georgetown manages the 8th best opponent 3 point FG %, and Georgetown is much, much bigger than Vanderbilt. Things look bleak for Vanderbilt.

Georgetown 74
Vanderbilt 67

#3 Oregon vs. #7 Nevada-Las Vegas, 9:40 ET

In my opinion, Oregon and Vegas create one of the more intriguing match-ups in the final 16. Both teams have been up and down, and are hitting their stride at just the right time. It's hard to judge how good these teams are by their aggregate season's performance. Oregon sports 5 guys who shoot over 40% from 3, and the 8th most efficient offense in the country. They've now won 8 straight, beating tournament teams Arizona, USC, and Washingston State by an average of 16 points.

Vegas is on a 9 game winning streak. Having displaced the highest seed to go down so far in the tournament (Wisconsin), they will also be coming in to this game with a great deal of confidence. But a few notes so far. Georgia Tech was quite a chique pick as a dark horse. They had the athletes and the talent to go far, and had an intriguing draw with ailing Wisconsin in the second round. But Georgia Tech had a poor offensive game, including a 27% night from beyond the arc and 59% from the free throw line. UNLV escaped in a fairly even game. Wisconsin, of course, lost Butch, and since have struggled. In two games against Ohio State with Butch, UW won a game 72-69 and lost one 49-48. Without Butch at the end of the Big 10 tournament, OSU walked over UW in an embarrassing 66-49 blowout. UNLV has had a good run, but they haven't faced a team as good as Oregon yet.

Oregon 72
UNLV 66

#1 North Carolina vs. #5 Southern California, 9:57 ET

Finishing the triumverate of mega-hyped teams, North Carolina has, statistically, lived up to expectations. They feature the country's best offense, and fourth best defense, and a 28-6 record. North Carolina is deep, and athletic, but we tend to forget that they are still young. They have spells of inconsistency, and massive lapses in defensive intensity. UNC's greatest strength is in the paint, as they are not a very good outside shooting team. Carolina will try to keep the pace high and cause turnovers and easy baskets.

USC ran past Texas with solid defense, holding the Longhorns to just 37.5% shooting and 25% from 3. Against the Tar Heels, though, the Trojans will need to force their pace. They will need to keep Carolina in the half-court, and try to keep the ball out of the paint. They are better off letting Terry, Ellington and Lawson try to beat them from 15+ feet than defending Hansbrough or Wright man for man. Although Terry is evidently fighting strep throat, he's been coming up pretty big for the Heels of late. USC's only shot is clogging the paint, keeping UNC off the offensive glass, and slowing the game down. They will also need to shoot well from afar to keep it close. A possible, but unlikely upset.

North Carolina 83
Southern California 71