Final Four preview

This is a far, far more exciting Final Four than what we had to endure last year. I'll be honest, I don't remember any of the 3 games. I fell asleep during the Final. Everyone wanted a Duke vs. UConn final, but both teams flamed out early in the tournament. Gonzaga collapsed against UCLA, Texas choked against LSU, Villanova was outmatched by Florida, and at the end, we end up with the worst Final Four since... I don't remember. So even though Duke isn't playing this weekend, I am most excited about this year's Final Four than I have been since 2004 (oh god why does ESPN classic need to replay that terrible game. I dare anyone who thinks Duke gets all the calls to go watch that abomination of a game and get back to me).

#1 Ohio State vs. #2 Georgetown, 6:07 pm

Most people are billing this up as Roy Hibbert vs. Greg Oden, but it's as likely that they will both be saddled in foul trouble for a lot of the game as them having some titanic battle of the giants. Although I do agree about one thing: the key to this game will be inside play. Georgetown relies a lot on easy shots set up by double-teams on Hibbert and back-door cuts. Oden's steady presence in the paint could present a problem for them offensively. But Georgetown is a very big team. Brandan Wright is also an excellent shot-blocker, and Georgetown pretty much scored at will on UNC. Of course, Oden is a better shot-blocker and OSU has a greater tendency to drop into a 2-3 than UNC does.

Ohio State's success will depend on two things: whether jump shots are falling, and/or whether Oden is involved in most of the minutes of the game. The odd thing is that OSU has tendencies where they just don't give Oden the ball as much as they should. This is a team with streaks of brilliance and streaks of utter mediocrity. OSU dominated Memphis after barely escaping Tennessee and Xavier. What team will we see?

So I have no god damn idea who will win this game. If Ohio State can stymie Georgetown's offense and get Hibbert in foul trouble, expect the Buckeyes to march on. If Georgetown executes offensively like they did against UNC and can control Oden and Conley's penetration, then they should win. I think UNC is a better team than Ohio State, but at this point in the season, that means nothing. So, I'll just take a shot.

Georgetown 81
Ohio State 77

#1 Florida vs. #2 UCLA, 8:47 pm

A rematch of the National Championship snoozefest of last year should be more interesting this time around. While Florida is much improved over last year, I'm not sure they are currently playing better than they were last year. At the very least, they are not playing as well vis-a-vis the other teams in the tournament as they were last year. They played a solid overall game against a much worse Oregon team and still only pulled out the win by a small margin. Their defense has not been in line with what you'd expect from a team who played so well last year in the tournament defensively. They have been winning games with offense in the tournament, but so far their tournament opposition has not exactly been the most stellar defensively. Purdue was the best (adjusted efficiency of 87.7, good for 15th in the country) statistically, but their total lack of size pretty much cut the upset bid short before it ever started. Butler had a defensive efficiency of 93 (48th in the country), and Oregon had an ADE of 93.4 (51st in the country). UCLA's ADE of 83.6 is the 2nd best defensive efficiency in the last 4 years (2nd only behind this year's Kansas team). They are lacking in size compared to Florida, but not to the extent Purdue did, and they proved against Kansas that they can defend the interior incredibly well.

The liability with UCLA is their offense. The hallmark of championship teams in recent years is balance, and UCLA's offense is rather underwhelming as compared with its defense. I have no doubt that UF will struggle against UCLA's defense, but I'm just not sure if UCLA's offense will take advantage. If Afflalo shows up like he did against Kansas, I like UCLA's chances. Plus, you have to like the intangibles of the UCLA guys wanting revenge for being embarrassed on the big stage last year. Florida has looked smug so far, and I have more faith in Ben Howland's ability to prepare a team than Billy Donovan's. Florida's offensive balance has proved too much for most teams this year, but UCLA's backcourt is better, and look for double teams on the blocks on Horford. UCLA is quick enough that they can double team down low and not suffer too much from it. Humphrey and Green are not going to get as many open looks as they did against Oregon, so I can't expect for either of them to get in much of a shooting rhythm (and Humphrey basically lives off his rhythm).

Again, this is a hard call. If Florida gets some early calls on Mata, they might be able to open up the inside for their bigs and make UCLA beat them offensively. I don't think this will happen. I think Florida will have a lot of trouble getting into an offensive rhythm. They won't get easy looks and will need to work hard for everything they get. I haven't been impressed by their defense and I think Afflalo will have a solid game to lead the revenge game.

UCLA 69
Florida 60